Good post Todd.
Quote:
|
3. As for the "clumping" effect of the players in front of you having folded, in the book Killer Poker By the Numbers, Tony Guerrera did some simulations with much less precise ranges than the one Barry used (although he used a range of ranges to get some perspective on the spread of possible effects) and concluded it does have some impact, without drawing any precise conclusions about how much.
|
After looking at Barry's algorithm, it's obvious many of the assumptions of hands played are unrealistic. A long time ago N82 (Nat Arem) and I were talking about this subject. He actually analyzed hundreds of thousands of real flops at 10/20 NL to calculate the frequency of each rank card coming on the flop (obviously deuces are significantly more likely to be flopped than aces). I forget exactly how he determined how likely aces were in the BB when folded to the SB or BB in a 10/20 cash game, but I do remember the results being very close to the 1/134 number Barry cites.