Quote:
Originally Posted by The 6th Wilbury
Only Pakman questions the shove on the river, which is odd because I can't imagine check/folding for $130 more with the pot being what it is. Everyone else appears to agree that he did nothing wrong on the end.
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My $125 turn bet is a big ass bet for a 1/2 game, and the reactions I got was as follow:
UTG1 snap called his entire stack
UTG2 hesitated for 15 sec. looked pained by couldn't find a fold
BTN quickly called as soon as UTG2 called
I just don't see UTG2 after time banked calling the turn will then all of a sudden come out shoving the river with worse. Like he is never value shoving KQ there ever. It would be so grossly overplayed with UTG1 already AI for the main pot.
So say UTG2 did have KQ,KJ,KT,QJ,etc. and he CK:
BTN is also never value betting one/2pr there. She is just a passive station and there is no side pot to win. She just wants to get to SD imo.
I think both UTG2 and BTN's mentality at this point is that the pot is huge and UTG1 is all in so lets just SD the hand. The only way that I can see that mentality changing is if BTN slow played AJ before she would considering betting into a side pot not realizing that UTG1 is most likely full at this point.
Both UTG2 and BTN will still call my shove with KQ,KT.
However, I have UTG1 squarely pegged on KK,QQ and I thought that UTG2 had KQ,KT. Then if I were to remove those cards from the combos that BTN may have, that only leaves:
0-6 Combos of either KQ,KT
While comparing:
12 Combos of AJ
1 Combo of KK / QQ
3 Combo of TT
Keep in mind that my shove will fold out all the KJ,QJ,JT hands.
So I'm way way more likely to be over valuing owning myself then I'm to be getting value from both remaining players.
As it turns out, if I did check, UTG2 would shove, and BTN will re-shove. At that point I have to at least credit BTN with AJ+ and muck saving $130.
I honestly don't see any wiggle room with my line of logic, but if anyone disagree then please let me know why/how?
Quote:
Originally Posted by a10fouru
6th is right, maybe betting more on the flop. I was assuming you had your reasons for that bet size...to keep 2 pr hands in..not scare off the stations.... |
My primary target was UTG1 who was the PF raiser and had only $130 or so at the start of the hand. There is just no way I could anticipate what the entire field is going to do behind us.
If I had tried to get AI by the turn vs UTG1, I would had to PSB the flop then shove the turn which seems too strong. He might find a fold with AK,AA. While I could just $25 the flop, $50 the turn, to setup a shove on the river. I find it much better to slow roast and get them pot stuck i/o over doing it. Also I was hoping that UTG1 would just ship it over my DKB given how coordinated the board was. Really didn't mind my 1/2 PSB and I think it accomplishes multiple things I want so.
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