WPT Niagara AA on a gross board vs Marc Karam

[Vivek Rajkumar]

8k/16k/2k, Marc Karam opens in MP to 40k. A solid internet player Sam Greenwood calls in the cutoff, and I make it 130k on the button with AA (a betsize I like since I can do it with all portions of my range preflop). Marc has 850k to start the hand and I have 840k. Marc calls and Sam folds.

Flop K Q 3, the pot is 350k and I have exactly 700k behind, i.e. 2x the pot.

My read is that Marc Karam plays way too wide preflop because he is primarily a pot limit omaha specialist, so he loves seeing the flop with hands like 76 and maybe hands like AJ which he really can't do so profitably (he would not agree with this opinion ). I think he would also call with hands like AQ preflop for example and definitely a lot of pairs. Also some chance he can slowplay KK/QQ since that's the most profitable way to extract money if I had air and squeezed on the button.

What to do?

[Paul Smith]

Hard to put him on any kind of range, but there's really nothing you can do here but bet (assuming he checks to you) and call his shove. 180k seems right to give him the illusion of FE.

[Barry Greenstein]

Vivek,

There was 160K in the pot before you raised 90k preflop. From Marc's point of view he is calling 90k to have a shot at winning 950k. It is critical to a lot of players to get at least 10 to 1 on a call there.

One thing I have noticed about the crowd coming off of the Internet is that most of them make the same small raises regardless of stack size. It's one of the reasons I like playing small pairs against them when we are deep stacked in tournaments and even more so in side games. That small raise strategy usually doesn't hurt them in sit n' goes and in online tournaments where the three-bettor is often pot committed and a four-better is always all-in or committed.

You seem to be talking about bet sizing as if it's independent of stack size, and I think that's a mistake. I like to price out the small pairs in situations where I can't get away from my overpair, like this one. I would have raised to a minimum of 150k the way the stack sizes were and maybe more. I'm sure I'm not the only one calculating what implied odds I'm getting on my preflop calls.

In some sense you were gambling that your opponents will call and get enough of the flop to get in trouble, but not enough to beat you, and that can work to your advantage, especially against a maniac like Marc.

After the flop, you have to guess if you want to overbet and force Marc off something like 77 or underbet and try to goad him to try to take the pot away from you.

Barry

[Vivek Rajkumar]

Barry, making a raise size to price out set draws makes your play unexploitable but it's not maximally profitable. I chose this bet size because I thought it was the most profitable one against his whole range of broadway/PPs/suited connectors. If he has broadway or a suited connector he is going to flop top pair or middle pair much more often than he's gonna flop a hand that beats me, and with a suited hand he's going to flop a flush literally like 1/100 times. I want all those hands to call me. If I thought he was going to fold a hand like J9s or AQ to a 150k raise but call to a 130k raise I would ALWAYS make the 130k raise because much more often than not he's going to flop a middling hand that will be behind my overpair and being out of position he has to play a guessing game for my inevitable flop c-bet.

If he's opening 20% of hands in MP, pocket pairs only account for 1/4th of that range, and if he has a pocket pair he will only flop a set 1/8 times (meaning to that open from middle position I am only worried about stacking off to a set 1/32 times). What's more, he's not gonna stack me every single time he has a set because my preflop range isn't exactly AA or KK where I'm always stacking off, sometimes it's AK and I whiff, sometimes it's JJ and he hits a set but there are overs on the flop and he only gets a portion of my stack etc etc. Yes a preflop raise size of 160k prices out sets but it also lets him get away from hands I *want* a call with and it gives him the illusion of possibly trying to "re-bluff" me preflop with a 4-bet.

It's sorta like why we always open to 3x with 100xBB effective stacks early in tournaments and in deep cash games. Yes we COULD be opening to 15xBB with aces and make it so that no one can setmine against us but a 3x open is the most balanced. The same concept applies to 3-bet sizing in my opinion.

Last thing is, when he does flop a set he doesn't get my 850k stack, he gets 90% equity (I have 2 overset outs) in a 1.7M chip pot = a +680k profit, NOT a +850k profit from me. There is no way he can setmine profitably by putting in 90k preflop in this situation.

[Justin Bonomo]

I'm either bet calling or shoving here.

Bet calling seems slightly more profitable to get him to semi-bluff some terrible bare flush draws, or strong one pair hands that don't have a diamond. Either way I think you should be happier to get the money in. (This is the part where the live tourney pros come in and tell me to not be happy about this small edge, because a good player like Vivek can wait for better spots.)

[Justin Bonomo]

Barry,

Mark cannot profitably set mine here against Vivek's range, even with the small raise size Vivek chose.

[Barry Greenstein]

Originally Posted by Vivek Rajkumar

Barry, making a raise size to price out set draws makes your play unexploitable but it's not maximally profitable. I chose this bet size because I thought it was the most profitable one against his whole range of broadway/PPs/suited connectors. If he has broadway or a suited connector he is going to flop top pair or middle pair much more often than he's gonna flop a hand that beats me, and with a suited hand he's going to flop a flush literally like 1/100 times. I want all those hands to call me. If I thought he was going to fold a hand like J9s or AQ to a 150k raise but call to a 130k raise I would ALWAYS make the 130k raise because much more often than not he's going to flop a middling hand that will be behind my overpair and being out of position he has to play a guessing game for my inevitable flop c-bet.

If he's opening 20% of hands in MP, pocket pairs only account for 1/4th of that range, and if he has a pocket pair he will only flop a set 1/8 times (meaning to that open from middle position I am only worried about stacking off to a set 1/32 times). What's more, he's not gonna stack me every single time he has a set because my preflop range isn't exactly AA or KK where I'm always stacking off, sometimes it's AK and I whiff, sometimes it's JJ and he hits a set but there are overs on the flop and he only gets a portion of my stack etc etc. Yes a preflop raise size of 160k prices out sets but it also lets him get away from hands I *want* a call with and it gives him the illusion of possibly trying to "re-bluff" me preflop with a 4-bet.

It's sorta like why we always open to 3x with 100xBB effective stacks early in tournaments and in deep cash games. Yes we COULD be opening to 15xBB with aces and make it so that no one can setmine against us but a 3x open is the most balanced. The same concept applies to 3-bet sizing in my opinion.

Last thing is, when he does flop a set he doesn't get my 850k stack, he gets 90% equity (I have 2 overset outs) in a 1.7M chip pot = a +680k profit, NOT a +850k profit from me. There is no way he can setmine profitably by putting in 90k preflop in this situation.

Vivek, Justin,

I disagree slightly with your numbers, but they will work out about the same as mine (http://www.pokerroad.com/tips_from_the_bear/lesson5/).

I use 1/8 for the chances of flopping a set, since two Aces are taken out of the deck. But I use a lower number of 7/8 for the probability of winning after flopping a set.

So in this case, if you had 840k to start the hand, Marc will be risking 800k if he flops a set and loses, but he will win the 160k in the pot before your 90k raise plus 710k more from you. So he can win 960k from the point of decision for him preflop.

Marc's chip EV = (7/8)(-90) + (1/8)( (7/8)(960) - (1/8)(800) )
= (7/8)(-90) + (1/8) ( (6720 - 800)/8)
= (7/8)(-90) + (1/8) (5920/8)
= (740 - 630)/8
= 13.75

I'm sure it's close to even with any numbers you might choose also. I think you guys are forgetting that there is other money in the pot and possibly even forgetting that he has already put in 40k of the 130k he needs to call preflop.

Is there any doubt in a tournament with a weak field which side of this even chip-equity situation you want to be on: the side that often wins an extra 90k but goes busted 11% of the time, or the side that takes a shot with 90k to more than double up to almost 1.8 million?

And Vivek, one of the many reasons you don't need to open for large amounts when you have big pairs and deep stacks, is that you will often get away from losing all your chips in those situations by folding at some point in the hand or because the normal course of betting doesn't get you all in.

I admit that we make good money on his non-pair hands where he gets a piece of the flop but still loses. But this field was amazingly weak down the stretch, so if I had good chips I wouldn't have been looking for close all-in confrontations. And remember, you could have raised an amount that probably ends the hand and gives you an EV of +120k at your point of decision by taking away calling as an option for Marc. Forcing him into a fold or shove situation may be your best way to hit the jackpot when he decides to shove with his middle (or higher) pairs or maybe even with some other hands.

Barry

[Jimmy Fricke]

Barry, we're thinking about Marc's longterm play with his range in this spot. Most of Marc's range does not play as well as a pocket pair and I'm sure he didn't do anywhere near those computations at the table deciding calling with what was +ev. If Marc is flatting OOP with T9s then he could find a way to flat OOP or to 4bet with a huge range, most of which plays much worse against AA than T9s. Even tighter players are stacking off in this spot with AKo and Marc could easily 4bet AJ or much much worse, and a smaller 3bet allows for that. Our bet is definitely made on the basis of metagame and not on the 'omg aces we have to allow action.' I think in that area you're not giving us enough credit.

If Vivek makes it 200k the chance of him folding is much much less and I'm sure in Marc's mind he's less likely to make a move with any sort of hand. Another friend of mine went out on day 2 (?) when he 3bet Marc's open in middle position with AK and Marc immediately moved in with 74s, and this spot looks MUCH better to be making a play than that one. Literally everything is perfect for Vivek to be making a move, and Vivek's bet size has to indicate that he could easily fold to a 4bet.

As for winning an extra 90k but going broke 11% of the time, isn't that tournament poker? I'm pretty sure I would take an 11% chance of busting to gain significant chips many many times with Vivek's stack size. Variance is a bitch.

[Barry Greenstein]

Originally Posted by Jimmy Fricke

Barry, we're thinking about Marc's longterm play with his range in this spot. Most of Marc's range does not play as well as a pocket pair and I'm sure he didn't do anywhere near those computations at the table deciding calling with what was +ev.

I recognize other meta-game considerations besides this. The main one is that you want to make a raise that looks the same as the raise you would make if you were stealing. I don't see that the smaller raise looks more like that than the bigger one.

A lot of the play is tied into your bet-sizing on other hands and how you expect your opponent to respond. I usually bet at least the size of the pot in these situations with big pairs and steals, probably because of my cash game roots where I typically deny opponents 2 to 1 preflop odds. In this case, the pot was 160k before Vivek's raise. All of you seem to miss my contention that your bet-sizing should be tied to your stack size at this point, and the question is at what size stack should you increase from your standard mid-stack three-bet.

As far as computations go, of course no one does these calculations at the table, but many people check to see what multiple of their call they might get if they make their hands. I stated that when getting more than 10 to 1 implied odds in this setup is a typical point to consider calling and weighing other issues. Justin and Vivek seemed to think I was off and I needed to demonstrate that I wasn't.

Barry

[Jimmy Fricke]

That's assuming that Marc knows that Vivek has AA and is getting paid off for stacks every time he flops a set which isn't the case. Not only that, but the calculations didn't account for reverse implied odds when Vivek flops an overset and Marc can't get away from it. Even if all of that doesn't matter, it's still a razorthin edge.

Originally Posted by Barry Greenstein

All of you seem to miss my contention that your bet-sizing should be tied to your stack size at this point, and the question is at what size stack should you increase from your standard mid-stack three-bet.

We definitely think the 3bet size should be tied to our stack size, and that's WHY we 3bet so small. We have to let Marc think we're capable of folding to a 4bet. We would not 3bet/fold to 200k.