I wish it was not three-handed (samoleus)

[Niman Kenkre]

This is from a 25-50 game at Foxwoods. I have about 27K to start the hand, the small blind has about 22K, and the big blind has about 16K. Both are reasonable players: not overly creative or aggressive, but fairly good technically. The big blind might be a shade steamed from a couple earlier pots, but nothing serious.

The action folds to me in the hijack, and I open to 175 with T8. It folds around to the blinds and they both call me. The flop comes down T42. The both check, and I bet 450 into the pot of 525. Now the small blind raises to 1500 straight. The big blind now flat calls the 1500.

What should my plan be? Normally, in pots that are heads up to the flop, I would play these pair+draw hands pretty hard, since I can never be dominated - and this enables me to balance my sets and other monsters. However, in this case, I run the real risk of being against a set and a better flush draw - which of course would leave me completely dead if we all continue.

If I reraise, I think that the small blind is a careful enough player that he could possibly fold a set of deuces (but not likely fours), especially considering that we are deep and I have been playing small-pot poker. He is however, aggressive enough to make this raise of my flop bet with as little as AT. The big blind is not likely to fold a set, but I do think that he would have reraised if he had had one instead of smooth calling. I think that a hand like QQ is potentially in his range here (which he would certainly fold to additional heat) though his likeliest hand does look sickeningly like Ax. I think that he would fold that hand if I reraised and the other guy folded but would probably call if I we both remained in the pot. Given these parameters, how - if at all - should I continue with this pot?

[Barry Greenstein]

Since so many of us on here have been playing tournaments, we don't face many situations where we start a hand playing for several hundred big blinds. I'm so used to shoving at this point to try induce one or both hands to fold that I could only think about this hand from memory.

If the guy who called the 1500 is a player who is often afraid to give free cards and could have very easily reraised with a set, then I still put in the big raise. At the other extreme, if he's a tight-ass who has to have a set to call there, then I would give a crying call and would even fold if the raise had been bigger.

Barry

[Jay Rosenkrantz]

I'd make it 6k here. The benefits of raising (and potentially having to fold to the SB) and getting a set to fold or getting HU against a set or a better flush draw with position and not both outweigh seeing the turn for cheap.

[Niman Kenkre]

Barry, if you decide to call, what is your plan if you hit a heart and either of the blinds bet? Same question for a ten and again for an eight.

Jay, if you make it 6K and get reraised/pushed in one spot and folded in the other, are you now folding? What if you get called? What is the plan on various turns?

[Justin Bonomo]

Yeah, the hand is pretty... but I'm pretty sure it's a fold.

If we call, we have no outs on the turn.

If we raise, we end up all-in vs a set and the nut flush draw way too often...

I don't see any way to make this hand +ev.

[Jimmy Fricke]

If we reraise, does the nut flush draw get it in against us basically ever? Or are we just assuming our opponents are bad enough that they're never folding the nut flush draw?

[Todd Terry]

Given your fairly specific reads, raising here is a pure bluff notwithstanding the fact that you have a pair and a flush draw. You're essentially repping top set because you have one T. If you get the SB to fold, the BB will fold and you'll win the 3975 in the pot. If the SB doesn't fold, the BB will usually come along with the NFD and you'll be drawing dead. So you're risking the amount of your raise, say 6K, to win the 3975 in the pot, so you need the SB to fold 60% of the time. Given your smallball image and your beliefs that the SB could be raising AT here and folding 22, you might be able to get him to fold > 60% of his c/r'ing range, but it's obviously a kamikaze play whose primary value would be the ability to tell a good story if you pull it off. I think I agree with Justin that it's a fold, but it's close to being +EV if all your reads are right.

[Barry Greenstein]

Originally Posted by Niman Kenkre

Barry, if you decide to call, what is your plan if you hit a heart and either of the blinds bet? Same question for a ten and again for an eight.

These situations are very read-dependent. I watch my opponents closely (not eying them like a hawk, but more peripherally and with my senses heightened) in these situations, from the point that I make my call here until the next bet occurs. When I was 18 until about 40 I played no-limit exclusively, and I had a rule that "I go with my reads or else why spend so much time paying meticulous attention to what everyone does. If I don't, I'll lose this gift." I had detailed notes on every player, both written and mental. I've folded trips and called with no pair, and I was pretty accurate.

I lost a lot of my reading ability when no-limit died and I had to start playing limit. The reads in limit were a little different because of the reduced pressure of the situations, and after folding incorrectly a few times getting 10 to 1 pot odds, I learned that I should start calling against anyone who is capable of monkeying around. I got lazier and lazier and spent less time trying to read people, because it wasn't a very important skill anymore, and it was better to conserve energy during my typical long sessions.

Niman and the rest of you guys who play live deep-stacked cash games should have some of this skill and attention to detail. (I notice that most of the young players who play predominately on the Internet lack this skill because it's not their native environment and, as a result, they aren't in tune with what is going on around them in a live setting.) By the way, I haven't noticed that this skill is any less valid or useful when I play against the highest-stakes players.

So back to the question. When the bet on the turn is made I go with my read. If the original raiser does things (bets and mannerisms) that are consistent with nut-flush draw (or Ten with a better kicker when a Ten hits), and the guy who hopped the fence does things that are consistent with flopping a set, I fold, assuming I am priced out against the hands I think my opponents have. The reason I called on the flop was because it wasn't too expensive and I was paying for more time and more information.

Barry

[Daniel Alaei]

The flop is a pretty standard call, doing anything otherwise would probably be a mistake. You will be able to make pretty good decisions on the turn, since you have position and this pot is now pretty big so any reasonable bet from the small blind is pretty telling. You should also get a free card a decent amount of time since the cold caller might freeze the small blind. Like Barry said, we can't make any decisions about the turn until we see what it is and how the action goes down.

[Justin Bonomo]

Originally Posted by Daniel Alaei

The flop is a pretty standard call, doing anything otherwise would probably be a mistake. You will be able to make pretty good decisions on the turn, since you have position and this pot is now pretty big so any reasonable bet from the small blind is pretty telling. You should also get a free card a decent amount of time since the cold caller might freeze the small blind. Like Barry said, we can't make any decisions about the turn until we see what it is and how the action goes down.

An expert read on the turn is pretty useless if you are drawing dead on the flop.