Hand from LAPT costa rica, river decision

[Matt Vengrin]

Since I am playing far less poker these days, this hand is not as complex as some posted but interesting I thought none the less.

My opponent is Niki Jedlicka, who has gone from 10k to 19k with relatively no showdowns. He has been playing pretty crazy preflop, and C betting almost every time. I feel like against these players, you just have to be the agressor and generally they will want to try to outplay you, no matter what the situation.

Anyways, 10k starting stacks, first level, the blinds are 25 50. I chipped down a little bit and was sitting on 8k I raise KQdd utg+1 to 125, I get a call from 4 hole, 6 hole, and Niki, who is on the button.
So preflop there is 575 in the pot.

Flop comes Qs3dQc. I check, the two others check behind and Niki fires 425. I flat call and the other two fold.

The turn is the 4d, putting a flushdraw on board and there is 1425 in the pot. I fire out 800 on the turn, wanting to look like I am trying to find out if my 88-JJ range is good. He flat calls and the river is the Ac.



At this point there is 3025 in the pot and I have 6650 in my stack.

What kind of a range can we put him on?
What do you do on the river?


-Matt

[Jimmy Fricke]

Originally Posted by Matt Vengrin

I feel like against these players, you just have to be the agressor and generally they will want to try to outplay you, no matter what the situation.

Flop comes Qs3dQc. I check, the two others check behind and Niki fires 425. I flat call.

Hmm.

[Matt Vengrin]

On the turn....

[Marc Karam]

Niki is crazy, it's pretty hard to put him on a range with the way the hand played out. He could have 52 or 56, Qx, 22-JJ, a turned flush draw...

I like a blocking-type bet of ~1000, that way he may make a hero call with a mid pair, and you left him what looks like some fold equity when he knows you can't have an Ace (other than AQ or AA), so he might shove with a number of hands you beat.

[Justin Bonomo]

Bet the flop. If someone other than the crazy guy has a queen, we generally play a bigger pot this way. Also, crazy guy probably expects us to c-bet here with anything if you've been playing aggressively like you had planned. Don't stop now. This is the type of flop where he can think, "It's unlikely that hit him, I can bluff him off his hand".

[Isaac Baron]

Originally Posted by Marc Karam

Niki is crazy, it's pretty hard to put him on a range with the way the hand played out. He could have 52 or 56, Qx, 22-JJ, a turned flush draw...

I like a blocking-type bet of ~1000, that way he may make a hero call with a mid pair, and you left him what looks like some fold equity when he knows you can't have an Ace (other than AQ or AA), so he might shove with a number of hands you beat.

In my experience Niki is way more cally than bluffy so I think betting small here would be a pretty big mistake. I would bet like 2200 or maybe even more, and hope that he talks himself into calling.

Also I'm not a fan of this line, bet the flop and if you don't, bet bigger on the turn, you have a really strong hand try to build a big pot, none of this half pot crap.

[Eric Lynch]

What Justin said in my opinion. Leading into the multi-way flop here is by far the best. It actually disguises our hand pretty well (we could just be c-betting here, right?) and more creative players may look for ways to use position against us to try and make us fold AA/KK/JJ on later streets given that your image is usually pretty snug in my experience. It also allows us to get some potential action from 77-JJ type hands who would be scared by a lot of cards on the turn. When we check call the flop here, thinking opponents will be able to pretty easily put us on a big hand if/when we ever come out firing on later streets. With a shorter stack I think I might like your line, but given the pre-flop action, the multi-way nature of the pot, and the type of image I feel you usually have at the table, leading here gets the best value.

As played I think against this opponent with your reads I like Isaac's suggestion of 2200 or so, although I'd even argue making it closer to 3000 as I think he's likely to flat call both bets with roughly the same range. You're going to be in a really sick spot if you get river raised here though, as you've completely polarized your potential range to either trip queens or better or some sort of missed draw. I suppose alternatively you could try and represent a blocking bet with something like AKdd here and fire like 1500 hoping to induce a bluff shove, but I think it's really tough to represent the ace here against a thinking opponent.

-Eric

Originally Posted by Justin Bonomo

Bet the flop. If someone other than the crazy guy has a queen, we generally play a bigger pot this way. Also, crazy guy probably expects us to c-bet here with anything if you've been playing aggressively like you had planned. Don't stop now. This is the type of flop where he can think, "It's unlikely that hit him, I can bluff him off his hand".