I am new to PLO

[Barry Greenstein]

Originally Posted by Ryan Daut

which means we book a 1692 winner by shoving now.


ok, so we improve on 28 cards (2 kings, 4 queen, 4 jack, 4 ten, 4 seven, 4 six, 2 fives, 2 threes, 2 deuces) and lets say there are 42 unknown cards (our 4cards, 4 board cards, him having 2 aces), so we improve 2 out of 3 times. 1/3 the time we lose 1800. thats -600.

the other 2/3 we frontshove when we hit. so we are shoving pot on 28 cards. suppose we draw 2 times, we lose 4 times, he folds 14 times, and he calls 8 times. i think this is fairly realistic as we are shoving pot and him folding on some flush cards/obvious straight cards seems reasonable. again we are assuming he doesnt improve, board gets scary and he folds less than 2/3 the time to a huge shove, seems ok to me.

so...2/42 we finish +600, splitting money in pot.
4/42 we finish -7200
14/42 we finish +3600
8/42 we finish +9000

we were already -600 from before.

-600+(600*2/42)-(7200*4/42)+(3600*14/42)+(9000*8/42)=1657

this would be less equity than just repotting the turn. so as i said i think we need to know more info about how much is really left.

Ryan,

Your calculations are interesting, but any time you get answers for two different plays that are reasonably close, you should not be looking for more accuracy on stack sizes to determine which play is best. Math should be used to make sure that the plays are reasonable choices, but then poker considerations should take over.

We start asking questions like:

1) Does this particular opponent fool around enough to sway me toward a certain play? (raising for fold equity in this case)

2) Did he just win or lose a hand which will factor into how he might have played this hand differently than normal?

And even if the cards are turned over and it looks like a straight math problem, we still have to ask questions like these:

1) If I make the aggressive play and win the hand will it steam him up and give me a chance to beat him for a big number?

2) In the case of a weak player, will he quit if he wins a big pot here so it's better to avoid giving him a chance to get out of the trap so easily?

We have had several hands discussed in this forum where different choices were reasonable. It's up to us as poker players to come up with reasons why one play is superior to another based on personal reasons having to do with that particular opponent.

Barry

[Ryan Daut]

Originally Posted by Barry Greenstein

Ryan,

Your calculations are interesting, but any time you get answers for two different plays that are reasonably close, you should not be looking for more accuracy on stack sizes to determine which play is best. Math should be used to make sure that the plays are reasonable choices, but then poker considerations should take over.

We start asking questions like:

1) Does this particular opponent fool around enough to sway me toward a certain play? (raising for fold equity in this case)

2) Did he just win or lose a hand which will factor into how he might have played this hand differently than normal?

And even if the cards are turned over and it looks like a straight math problem, we still have to ask questions like these:

1) If I make the aggressive play and win the hand will it steam him up and give me a chance to beat him for a big number?

2) In the case of a weak player, will he quit if he wins a big pot here so it's better to avoid giving him a chance to get out of the trap so easily?

We have had several hands discussed in this forum where different choices were reasonable. It's up to us as poker players to come up with reasons why one play is superior to another based on personal reasons having to do with that particular opponent.

Barry

i agree for sure that poker considerations need to be applied but all im saying is that the stacksizes makes a huge huge difference in what should actually happen in the hand. it seems like every other person in the thread only considered calling and shoving when we hit an option and not shoving now, and if the stacks are indeed very short then its not really close as to what the best decision is, calling gives a far far higher EV as our opponent will call very frequently getting 5+:1 with top set.

no matter who his opponent is, the probability he has AA is almost certainly >80%. and the fact that we are a money favorite against the average of all AA which is the current nuts matters more the deeper you get because we can start to really exploit that edge by getting more and more money in as a favorite as we expect our opponent to put in much more money on the turn than just 1 potsized bet in the case if we were to call and frontbet pot on the river.

obviously how the opponent is playing in the session matters a great deal because you can adjust how often he will call on the end to see which play will be best. the logic and poker considerations should be used to make better assumptions for our math. the better feel we have of a situation and a grip on the metagame between ourself and another player the better our assumptions about the situation will be, and if we tighten those assumptions up to close to perfect, we can then figure out the best possible decisions mathematically.

your point about future game implications, people quitting or playing crazier afterwards are definitely things to think about that most people online dont, especially when youre playing 6 tables and youre not playing your session for any 1 table and especially not for any 1 player in particular.