Preflop spot v. Kevin Saul with AQo deep in foxwoods

[Kevin Saul]

Originally Posted by Christian Harder

true, i should have brought that hand up. But think the fact that you were UTG and i was UTG+3, is a lot different then Cutoff v. SB (obv). Ya the flop was like A82 i wasn't going to fold AQ there . And regarding the stack sizes, your right, you were a little deeper then i said in OP.

True...but I also worded it wrong, meaning to say that the one hand we had played together so far at the table was the AK where u flatted me pre and check-backed an ace high flop. Basically meaning that it wasn't like the 2 of us were going to war 3 hands an orbit...we werent at the table very long together but when I'm on the east coast playing in a WPT I'm personally gonna be trying to find locals to play pots with rather then good internet players.

Kevin

[Eric Lynch]

I assume from the way this reads you're in the small blind and not the big blind? I think if we're in the small blind we have to give some thought to the player in the big blind here. AQo is not a hand I'm a huge fan of playing semi deep stacked out of position in a multi-way pot. If I'm pretty confident the BB will fold a lot here or when he calls he'll play his hand pretty straight up I prefer calling with these stacks knowing I may get out played sometimes post flop because of it, but also knowing that I dominate hands in Kevin's range and by smooth calling I'm disguising the strength of my hand enough I should be able to make up for some of my positional disadvantage by representing a weaker hand than I actually have for value when I hit.

If the big blind player is tricky and will take a lot of flops here (again, I'm assuming from the way the action is described we're in the small blind), I'd probably prefer 3-betting or even folding to calling. We have a really awkward stack post flop for 3 betting though, as if we make it like 40k the pot will be near 100k-ish (if we are called) and we'll have ~160k behind or so (very rough math here, the point is if we 3-bet then c-bet we're going to get over 50% of our chips in, easily).

We could make it like 65k which would allow us to shove any flop, but that probably allows Kevin to play pretty perfectly against us, although we're pretty much never allowing ourselves to get outplayed this way. We could also 3 bet kinda smallish like 32k or something which might look more like a monster depending on Kevin's perception of us, and gives us more options if/when we get called or 4 bet.

If it were me personally I might go the small 3 bet action because I know Kevin is usually not excited to give me chips when I have position on him at the table, and I would often play AA/KK very similarly. I know your table image is quite a bit different than mine though Christian so I'm not sure how he would react to you.

Honestly, if I'm not comfortable getting it in pre-flop here, and the big blind is tricky I don't hate folding here if the table dynamics are right. If there are a few soft spots at the table to exploit I'll consider laying down AQ/88 type hands here to a player like Kevin who I think with these stacks will play relatively well against me in position.

Another consideration if we're in the small blind is the big blind's stack and his likelihood of squeezing. If he has like 75-100k left and is an active squeezer I might call here both because I get to see Kevin's reaction to the squeeze and because I figure to be ahead of a light squeezer's range here so I'm pretty happy calling a habitual squeezer if Kevin folds when I have AQo.

My thought process has gotten kinda screwy in this post, but basically if the big blind is pretty straightforward/tight (or we are the big blind) I like smooth calling with these stacks because it disguises our hand some and gives us some post flop maneuverability. I also like calling the big blind is a squeezer with a squeeze stack. If the big blind is tricky I prefer a smallish 3-bet and re-evaluate vs Kevin, but I think Kevin plays a little different vs me than most people. If the table is pretty soft and the big blind is tricky, then honestly I think folding is just fine and getting chips from other sources is probably best even if we are folding the best hand a fair amount of the time here.

-Rizen

[Bryan Devonshire]

Originally Posted by Eric Lynch

I don't hate folding here if the table dynamics are right.

but, it's AQ. and it's kevin. and. wat? really? o man. ouch. my head hurts. really?

...thinking...

love this forum...

... really?

K. Help? How are the table dynamics ever right to fold AQo pre to a Kevin Saul open? I mean, I know he's good, but... it's the ace and the queen!

But I understand all the perils, but, still. This hand is waaaaaaaaaaay ahead of his pf open range, so folding can't be right, right?

[Eric Lynch]

Originally Posted by Bryan Devonshire

but, it's AQ. and it's kevin. and. wat? really? o man. ouch. my head hurts. really?

...thinking...

love this forum...

... really?

K. Help? How are the table dynamics ever right to fold AQo pre to a Kevin Saul open? I mean, I know he's good, but... it's the ace and the queen!

But I understand all the perils, but, still. This hand is waaaaaaaaaaay ahead of his pf open range, so folding can't be right, right?

Sure, if we analyze this one hand in a total and complete vacuum ignoring all other factors other than stack sizes and opponent, we probably shouldn't ever be folding here. What i meant by the table dynamics being right, is that if the table is such that you're accumulating chips fairly easily with little resistance, then I would certainly consider avoiding situations such as this. I'm sure you've been at plenty of tables where there were players who you could just abuse with position or steal their blinds all day. with a 40 BB stack i'm not too happy playing a potentially large pot with AQo OOP against a player I feel is going to play relatively well post flop if there are better spots to accumulate chips.

As in my original post, I would probably be calling or 3 betting a vast majority of the time based on the big blind's stack/squeezing tendencies/tightness but I think not taking into consideration the dynamics of the table when considering playing a big pot with a semi-deep stack would be a mistake. I will often take my seat/table into consideration when i'm faced with what I feel are marginal decisions. At tougher tables I'm much more likely to take spots like this where I can chip up in 'chunks' even in marginal situations if I feel there is value, while at softer tables i'll consider passing up some of the more marginal situations to chip up more methodically.

I'm certainly not advocating folding here, just saying that at the right table, I think folding can be an overall +EV play.

-Eric

[Paul Smith]

I prefer calling in these situations. Not particularly happy about being OOP against a very good player, but the good news is that my range will be wide in his view and my actual hand is at or near the top of that range. If I miss, I can usually move on to the next hand without much thought (although, I might c/call certain flops even when I miss). If I hit, I can let him have/keep the initiative and hopefully fire a couple of barrels.

I think online we can expect Kevin to 4bet shove worse hands plenty to make it highly +EV to 3bet/call, but in a WPT event with a few soft spots at the table I just don't see it happening enough to be more profitable then flat calling.

[Daniel Negreanu]

Originally Posted by Ryan Daut

We can certainly show a profit by just shoving 43bb over his open, probably even by shoving AND turning our hand face up we still show a profit. When you combine all the random crap he could 4bet here cause its a really good spot for him to, i think 3bet/call shove is certainly way better than folding, 3bet folding and just jamming.

However, I am not sure if its more profitable than just calling pre though, because kevin is probably going to cbet any flop that is good for us, and possibly fire a 2nd barrel if we just check call flop. we can also just play our AQ high for value on a lot of board and c/c those, and if we do improve on the turn kevin could double barrel those. i.e. flop comes 247 we c/c one street, turn is a blank he gives up a lot when we have the best hand, but if turn is an A/Q, hes going to fire again a lot so there is a ton of value by just calling pre with a lot less variance to the play.

Smart kid :-) Here is my order:

1) Call
2) Raise to 38k and fold to a re-raise

Actually, you can rob me all you want Kevin by 4-betting me in that spot because I'm not calling you with A-Q there. Of course, if I re-raise you in that spot I usually will call you because I'll have better than A-Q if I do. Just sayin' :-)