Bellagio $1500: 88 vs. Barry G

[Barry Greenstein]

Originally Posted by Alex Kamberis

Do you mean you would make a re-raise with a playable hand just in order to pick up info/some live tells, even though you have every intention of treating it similarly to 72o for the rest of the hand?

No. If I raised less than all-in here (for effect), I would do it with the intention of calling. But sometimes something happens in the way your opponent puts his chips in or talks that can make you change your plans.

Similarly, online you may put your opponents on a range that includes AK or big pairs where live you can sometimes tell by watching them think which one it is.

Barry

[Vivek Rajkumar]

uhhh I would shove up to 40bbs effective preflop with 88 (35 if he opened 2.5x), better pairs are like 10% of barry's opening range on the button and it sucks to play OOP guessing games. just take the free money and shove preflop

[Todd Terry]

My initial reaction to Clonie's plan to raise/fold was the same as everyone else's here, but I've thought about it for a while and changed my mind. Let's look at the math.

Barry has 30,300 after posting at the start of the hand. If I raise to 10K and Barry shoves, I'm getting 2.06:1, which means I need 32.7% to break even in terms of cEV. But there's no reason that we have to be wedded to the 10K raise size if we can raise a bit smaller without changing Barry's reaction to the raise:

Raise Size-------Pot Odds---------cEV Breakeven
10000-----------2.06:1-----------32.7%
9500------------1.99:1-----------33.5%
9000------------1.92:1-----------34.2%

Now let's look at 88's equity against various shoving ranges:

JJ+,AK: 33.3%
TT+,AK: 31.3%
TT+,AQs+,AKo: 33.0%
99+,AQ+: 35.6%
77+,AJs+,AQo+: 40.2%

My best guess for Barry's range in this particular spot, where I'm an unknown making a raise that seems to be pot committing, is {99+,AQ+}. So we're getting the right price to call in terms of cEV, but not by much, even if we make the smallest raise to 9000. But if we tighten up his range a bit we may not even be getting the right price to call.

However, as I alluded to in some of my other posts, there's more to this situation than cEV because we're close to the money bubble. At this stage, there's a gap between $EV and cEV. I think a conservative estimate of our bubble factor, defined as (% $EV lost/% $EV gained) for a given amount of chips under ICM, is 1.2 here (it could definitely be higher).

To get the $EV breakeven point, you take the chip pot odds and divide by the bubble factor to get your true odds, so for the various raise sizes:

Raise Size------------True Odds-------------$EV Breakeven
10000----------------1.72:1----------------36.8%
9500-----------------1.65:1----------------37.7%
9000-----------------1.60:1----------------38.5%

Now, all of the shoving ranges, other than {77+,AJs+,AQo+} (which I think in this particular spot is too loose), do not give us enough equity to call.

This means that we are not priced in to call after 3betting, and therefore:

$EV(3bet/fold) > $EV(3bet/call) (1)

Now, let's make a further assumption that Barry will 4bet shove over a 3bet with the same range with which he would call a 3bet shove. I think this is reasonable in this spot given that I'm an unknown making what seems to be a pot-commiting 3bet. Note that this assumption is not game-theoretically stable -- if Barry knows that I'm willing to 3bet/fold here, his 4bet shoving range will widen. If this assumption is correct, then 3betting to 9-10K and calling is the same as 3bet shoving, and therefore:

$EV(3bet/call) = $EV(shove) (2)

Combining (1) and (2) yields:

$EV(3bet/fold) > $EV(shove)

In essence, this means that the $EV(shove) is all coming from the exploitable gap between Barry's opening and continuing ranges and we're better off risking less chips exploiting that gap. Which makes 3bet/folding the best play unless $EV(call) > $EV(3bet/fold), which no one other than me and maybe one or two other posters in this thread thinks is even a possibility.

The other usual objection to 3bet/folding a hand like 88 is that you're turning it into a bluff, and might as well do it with 72o (as AJK said). But since no one thinks there's value to calling with 88 preflop in this spot, you're not killing any value of the hand by turning it into a bluff.

Thoughts?

----


AJK, on Barry's point, I can think of 2 instances where I 3bet intending to call a shove and then ended up folding due in part or in total to live reads. Justin witnessed one of them.

[Clonie Gowen]

Originally Posted by Todd Terry

My initial reaction to Clonie's plan to raise/fold was the same as everyone else's here, but I've thought about it for a while and changed my mind. Let's look at the math.

Nice work, Todd.

You did a much better job of explaining what I was thinking than I ever could. On a funny note: Getting in the mind of a woman and understanding her is dangerous territory. Just a warning: LOOK UP! Because I think you might get hit by a big beer can.

Clonie

[Justin Bonomo]

Folding AQ in Barry's spot would be terrible. Shoving AJ and 77 on the other hand would be fine. Only your loosest range includes those hands.

Also, if we make it 9k, it's correct for him to call a lot of hands. KQ for example is a fine hand to call with. If I'm up against an aggro online player, I'd probably call with hands like QJs too. I hate when people assume their good opponent is never calling in a spot where he's in position and getting great pot odds.

[Todd Terry]

Originally Posted by Justin Bonomo

Folding AQ in Barry's spot would be terrible. Shoving AJ and 77 on the other hand would be fine. Only your loosest range includes those hands.

Also, if we make it 9k, it's correct for him to call a lot of hands. KQ for example is a fine hand to call with. If I'm up against an aggro online player, I'd probably call with hands like QJs too. I hate when people assume their good opponent is never calling in a spot where he's in position and getting great pot odds.

I agree with most of this, but at the time I'm a random player who hasn't 3bet him at all, I think he's mucking AJ and 77 there easily, you disagree?

[Clonie Gowen]

Originally Posted by Justin Bonomo

Folding AQ in Barry's spot would be terrible. Shoving AJ and 77 on the other hand would be fine. Only your loosest range includes those hands.

Are you saying that you will shove Barry's stack with AJ and 77 to a 10,000 raise?

That would be crazy against an unknown player.

[Bryan Devonshire]

Doesn't raising to 9k or whatever open us up to Barry picking up on what we're doing and exploit that? ie turn his hand into a bluff and shove hands that he was folding to a shove?

[Justin Bonomo]

Originally Posted by Clonie Gowen

Are you saying that you will shove Barry's stack with AJ and 77 to a 10,000 raise?

That would be crazy against an unknown player.

No one is ever unknown. There's always some information.

Sure, if Todd has played like a nit, and no internet player has so much as said "Hi" to him, then maybe folding those hands is fine.

But a simple head nod to Todd from a player under 25 would be enough for me to think shoving these hands is fine.