Hand v. Sorel Mizzi in Bellagio 15k.

[Christian Harder]

I had moved to Sorels table about an hour before, Sorel had been pretty active but nothing crazy, i had been a little less active, but still opening a decent amount. Me and Sorel have played a little in live tourneys and a lot online and hes usually gotten the best of me. Previously i had 4 bet allin for 45bbs after a Sorel Squeeze and he folded after some thought.

Anyways @ 500/1k he opens to 2600 UTG+2 with 58k and i make it 7600 on the button with K K (i cover by 3k) fairly quickly...He calls pretty quickly.

Flop is Q 8 4. He snap checks then calls my 10.1k bet very quickly. Turn is 9 and he snap checks. So theres 38k in the pot and 41kish effective stacks left. Whats your line here? By his timing on the flop/turn i figured he had a huge hand or a hand like JJ, TT, QJs, 87s (i think he shoves Draws and thinks longer with AA, AQ, KQ on the flop, could be wrong though). I don't think Sorel is going to hero call the latter hands though, but theres a lot of money in the pot and its super drawy. Bet small/Shove/Check?

Anyways i tank and count out my chips, before checking. River is the 8. Sorel checks very quickly...Whats ur line on the river? check, bet small? or shove. Thanks

-christian harder

[Ryan Daut]

dont want to post thoughts on how sorel plays but id shove the turn, and now that you are at the river i shove here as well.

shove the turn cause there are 2 draws on it so you could get looked up lighter, and theres a ton in the pot so if you dont get looked up lighter you still win a significant pot. i also dont expect you to be beat that often so its not like youre really spewing by shoving KK here.

shove the river because it doesnt seem credible that youd check a strong hand on this turn and shove this river, and also because presumably an 8 is not a huge part of your range here.


that said i think the best play is only marginally better than the next best play and i think checking in both spots is ok as well. as for betting small on the river...i dunno, i feel like we leave ourself open to get owned if we are bet folding. our bet isnt reallly that credible as a hand so sorel might think its for thin value or a bluff and he could shove as a bluff, so i tend to not like bet/fold too too much even though sorel doesnt have a lot of room to make a move there, i think check is better than bet/fold.

and bet/calling...well, i dunno. tough to say exactly but i guess if hes turning enough marginal showdown value hands into a bluff when we bet small, then the value we lose by betting smaller instead of shoving and having him just call is made up by the fact that he turns some of those hands into bluffs that he might otherwise fold cause he thinks he might not be good but could get a fold. but this is a spot where sorel never has "air" so either he has a weakish value hand or he has a monster, so im starting to confuse myself lol

[Amit Makhija]

shove both streets everytime vs almost anyone, sorel included. Check shove looks so unbelievable that on the river youll almost never get looked up light as sorel would not expect you to make a bluff that is repping nothing when everything bricks, it looks very much like a value shove from a good player, so shove the turn next time, as youd play alot of draws this way and various other holdings.

[Ryan Daut]

rethinking it maybe you do have an 8 in your range a fair amount. and as amit said it just looks so unbelievable that maybe sorel will fold and put you on KK/AA/8x, which makes the turn an easy easy shove. the river is much closer and im still not sure what is best

[Christian Harder]

main reason i didn't shove the turn, was i tanked for a while then counted out my chips, which was prolly a mistake, but i wasnt sure if i had 30 or 50k behind, which matters a lot imo, And i think when i do this it comes off as strength, could be wrong though.

[Justin Bonomo]

Shove turn.

[Adam Junglen]

Bet slightly more on the flop, shove turn.

[Steve Brecher]

Originally Posted by Adam Junglen

Bet slightly more on the flop ...

It seems to me advice to bet only slightly more can't be supported by much confidence that the advice is correct. My assumption is that the science of NLHE is not yet sufficiently advanced to support fine distinctions in bet sizing. But I could well be missing something!

Regardless of that "meta" objection, I'd be interested as to why you think 57% of the pot is not sufficient here.

[Adam Junglen]

Originally Posted by Steve Brecher

It seems to me advice to bet only slightly more can't be supported by much confidence that the advice is correct. My assumption is that the science of NLHE is not yet sufficiently advanced to support fine distinctions in bet sizing. But I could well be missing something!

Regardless of that "meta" objection, I'd be interested as to why you think 57% of the pot is not sufficient here.

As played (10.1k bet on the turn) going to the river there was 38k in the pot with 41k effective stacks. If Charder bets 11.5k-12.5k on the flop, he sets up stacks for a pot sized river shove. Also Sorel is likely calling 12k as often has he is 10.1k.

[Vivek Rajkumar]

I would bet like 15k on the turn or shove with all these draws out. Quite easy for Sorel to call with toppair/JJ/TT given the plethora of draws out (although the combinations of Qx are lessened because I think he folds AQ/KQ/QJ preflop quite often when he opens EP and you 3-bet).

As played the river is soooooo perfect for him to call you with Qx or JJ/TT so I would shove even though it's slightly over a PSB.