Two Hands in the Bellagio WPT $15k

[Thayer Rasmussen]

Here are 2 hands that I think I may have played too passively/tightly :


#1

800/1600 - 200

Kevin "BeL0WaB0Ve" Saul(150k) opens the HJ to 4500, I(190k) am in the SB with TT and make it 15.5k, then Adam "csimmsux" Geyer(~230k) in the BB makes it ~42k(I don't recall the exact bet size). Kevin folds pretty quickly and I tank for a bit and fold.

Thoughts -

1)I don't think Kevin is getting too out of line opening our blinds(yes still opening a lot just not "BeL0WaB0Ve" a lot)
2) Kevin is probably flatting me a ton so my range isn't super wide here since I'm not a big fan of playing an out of position 3 bet pot with 100bb stacks, though I'm not sure what Adam thinks about my range here.
3) My impression of "csimmsux" is he's willing to do stuff like cold 4 bet bluff if he thinks it will work.
4) I like my edge in this tournament.

also FYI my playing style live is a bit laggier(especially when deeper) than my online super nit style.




#2

1200/2400 - 300

Dealt AcKc UTG(~250k) and make it 7k, a really tight player(~140k) calls in Late Position, and Hoyt Corkins(~400k) makes it 30k in the BB. I called and other guy folds. Flop is Jd6h2d, Hoyt bets 44k and I fold.

Thoughts -

1)In our very brief history I have previously raised UTG twice and taken his BB, and I have 3 bet him pre and he has folded. I am not too sure if he's taken this personally, but it is a possibility.
2) I really don't know much about Hoyt's play style up to this point other than he's more aggressive than most Live Pros.
3) There is around 120 people left, 100 pay, and the next time there is a $20k jump is from 8th to 7th. The difference between 100th and 21-30th is $20k.



In retrospect I feel like perhaps I should have been more willing to get it in Preflop in both hands, but was wondering what you guys thought.

[Paul Smith]

In Hand #1, your third point is key and makes this a shove. I'm sure Adam's impression of Kevin is the same as everyone's, and he expects your impression to be the same, so it's the perfect spot for him to cold 4bet. Indeed, it seems like raising TT OOP here with Adam left to act and Kevin the LP open raiser should be with the intention of getting it in against either player, otherwise I'd just flat Kevin's raise if I wasn't willing to get it in against either one of them.

Hand #2, I think you played it fine. It'd be pretty horrible to get 100 BBs in with AK in this situation, particulary given the edge I think you have over the field. The biggest problem I have with these types of hands is they annoy me for an orbit or two and make me more likely to make a mistake.

[Vivek Rajkumar]

2) I really like how you played Hand 2 because the times you get bluffed out by AQ/AJ/broadway you dominate makes up for when you flop TPTK and he stacks off with TP2K for 100 big blinds. Given the history you mentioned it seems like you should be willing to put it in if you were in mid position instead of EP but I think calling is better than putting it in since you opened UTG.

1) I think Adam has to be 4-bet folding at least like half the time (very approx math) for your shove to be profitable, I think this is based very much on what you and Kevin have been doing the last 30 hands or so and overall table dynamics. I could go either way on this one. Csimmsux is def a person who is capable of showing up with air in this spot.

[Thayer Rasmussen]

FWIW, Todd Terry on hand #1 :

If he's getting it in with {JJ+,AK}, we need him to be 4bet/folding 42.5% of the time just to breakeven cEV-wise, and obviously we want to have a significantly higher threshold than breakeven cEV to risk > 100 BBs here.

Yikes, that's pretty high! Then again he might not be always be playing JJ this way, and if anyone is 4 bet bluffing that often here, Adam is one of the most likely.

[Todd Terry]

Originally Posted by Vivek Rajkumar

2) I really like how you played Hand 2 because the times you get bluffed out by AQ/AJ/broadway you dominate makes up for when you flop TPTK and he stacks off with TP2K for 100 big blinds. Given the history you mentioned it seems like you should be willing to put it in if you were in mid position instead of EP but I think calling is better than putting it in since you opened UTG.

If he has AQ or AJ, to take an example, an A-high flop is only going to come 12% of the time. I also think stacking him if he hits top pair with a worse kicker is fairly optimistic. You're also going to get bluffed out of the pot when you miss the flop (at least 2/3 of the time, more if you're sharing cards with him) by whatever garbage hands are in his range. And given the history (Thayer raising from UTG twice already on his BB (UTG is the new button!), and 3betting him), plus the fact that he has a big stack with the bubble approaching, I think there are a ton of garbage hands in his range here. I'd wager all my chips. AKs is 41.9% against a range of {QQ+,AK}, and better against any looser range, so our equity if called is great here (much better than the 33.7% of TT vs. {JJ+,AK} in the first hand).

[Todd Terry]

I started responding to this thread on 2p2, various excerpts:

#1 seems like an easy fold, given stacks he probably thinks your range is fairly tight. I don't think I like the 3bet this deep.

...

If he's getting it in with {JJ+,AK}, we need him to be 4bet/folding 42.5% of the time just to breakeven cEV-wise, and obviously we want to have a significantly higher threshold than breakeven cEV to risk > 100 BBs here.

I also think there's something to be said for assessing the first cold 4bet of a player fairly conservatively when you're > 100 BBs in a tournament where you think you have a significant edge.

...

That he needs to be 4bet/folding 42.5% of the time here to be +cEV seems like a big number, but it really isn't. If we assume he's getting it in with {JJ+,AK}, what does that 42.5% number mean? Adam will be dealt a hand other than {JJ+,AK} 96.7% of the time. If he is dealt one of those other hands, what % of the time does he need to 4bet bluff in order for shoving TT here to show a cEV profit? The answer is only 2.4% of the time. So, if Adam, when confronted with this exact situation, 4bet bluffs more than 1 time in 40 opportunities, shoving TT is +cEV. If he's 4bet/folding just {AQ,AJ,KQ}, that's a 4.0% 4bet bluff frequency.

There are other issues to consider, like how much of a premium we need here and his perception of Thayer and consequently his range here, but getting it in here is not nuts by any stretch.

I still like a fold due to Thayer's nitty image and how tight Thayer's range probably is for 3betting Kevin OOP this deep, but getting it in is definitely more appealing to me now than it was when I first started thinking about the hand.

[Scott Seiver]

I would certainly shove preflop against Adam in this spot and expect it to be quit profitable. The reasons in the above post really are all the reason why.

I feel folding preflop is the best play in hand 2 as I am nowhere near convinced that you're at all making any money postflop given how you're going to be playing the vast majority of pots and how rarely it is that you get a good flop given his perceived range of card blockers, not to mention how little you probably actually get on your good flops and the reverse implied odds that can slaughter us.

[Aaron Jones]

I'd get both all in pre and be pretty happy about it.