Stud8 Line Check HORSE FT

[Bryan Devonshire]

Hi kids, quick line check. 4 handed Stars Sunday HORSEament. Payouts are:

12.7k
8700
5875
4050

Curious about 3rd and 5th, I really wanted to gas both streets, decided not to for fluctuation/icm.
4th, 6th, and 7th standard?

All comments appreciated.


Tournament - HORSE - 7 Card Stud High-Low - Level L (6,000/12,000), Ante 1,200, Bring-In 1,800 (converter)

Hero: 132,766
Seat 3: 59,652
Seat 4: 222,937
Seat 5: 184,645

3rd Street - (0.80 SB)

Hero: 3 2 4___brings-in___calls
Seat 3: xx xx 6___raises___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 5___raises
Seat 5: xx xx Q___calls

4th Street - (8.80 SB)

Hero: 3 2 4 Q___checks___calls
Seat 3: xx xx 6 8___bets
Seat 4: xx xx 5 5___checks___calls
Seat 5: xx xx Q T___checks___calls

5th Street - (6.40 BB)

Hero: 3 2 4 Q A___checks___calls
Seat 3: xx xx 6 8 A___bets
Seat 4: xx xx 5 5 6___checks___calls
Seat 5: xx xx Q T 2___checks___calls

6th Street - (10.40 BB)

Hero: 3 2 4 Q A 8___raises___calls
Seat 3: xx xx 6 8 A 9___raises 4452 to 28452 and is all-in
Seat 4: xx xx 5 5 6 K___folds
Seat 5: xx xx Q T 2 Q___bets___calls

River - (17.51 BB)

Hero: 3 2 4 Q A 8 7___checks
Seat 3: xx xx 6 8 A 9 xx___all-in
Seat 5: xx xx Q T 2 Q xx___checks

Total pot: (17.51 BB)

[Justin Bonomo]

Bet 7th street yo! There's a non-0 % chance that he folds, and you are guaranteed half the pot.

Other than that, looks fine to me.

[Jimmy Fricke]

Ya, definitely. If Seat 3 weren't allin on 7th you could make a case for checking. Even if we deduce he's calling 100% of the time here, bet for metagame.

[Bryan Devonshire]

We have AQ high with a player all in and a villain showing QQ... really we want to risk folding the QQ and letting the all-in player win half the pot with high? There is no side pot on 7th.

[Barry Greenstein]

Originally Posted by Bryan Devonshire

We have AQ high with a player all in and a villain showing QQ... really we want to risk folding the QQ and letting the all-in player win half the pot with high? There is no side pot on 7th.

AQ high might beat the all-in player for a scoop, if somehow the other guy folded, when the all-in guy hits a Ten or a Jack on the river. Players who religiously avoid betting into dry side pots, don't get paid off as often when they actually have a real hand.

Barry

[Justin Bonomo]

Originally Posted by Bryan Devonshire

really we want to risk folding the QQ and letting the all-in player win half the pot with high?

Yeah, having the guy with QQ fold is a HUGE plus for us. We beat the all-in guy a decent amount of the time for the scoop, and even if it was a rare occurrence, it would still be a huge plus.

[Joe Tall]

I would bet the river as well, give him a chance to mis-click at least. You dont have a board-lock low but your hand could not be closer to it.

[Bryan Devonshire]

K dudes (promise this is last objection),

I hate missing value bets. But is the value we gain from the times that the QQ folds (srsly... what % is this? Like less than 5%?) AND our AQ high beats whatever he just went bat**** insane with for all his chips worth possibly keeping it 4 handed? I mean, I know, AQ might be good. But honestly, what % of the time can we expect this to reasonably happen?

Even if we get the QQ to fold, I feel like we're close to even money with AQ high vs. 3 random cards. They beat us for half the pot with a singleton king.

Stacks are short. There is huuuuge ICM value in knocking out a player and moving up the pay scale. We pretty much guarantee moving up immediately by checking, where if we bet we risk taking 4th in exchange for the value of the time QQ folds and we're good.

IMO since the percentage of the time that happens is so low, the $EV of checking has to be greater than betting, even though betting is obviously + cEV.

[Barry Greenstein]

Originally Posted by Bryan Devonshire

Even if we get the QQ to fold, I feel like we're close to even money with AQ high vs. 3 random cards. They beat us for half the pot with a singleton king.

Three random cards? Maybe I am misunderstanding you here, but I assume my opponents have looked at their hole cards before they put money in the pot, and so only the river card is random. The other two are almost assuredly low cards. If the all-in guy made a six low, which is not unreasonable to think, we could score a great coup getting the high half of the pot by forcing the other guy to fold.

In tournaments, you see some pretty surprising folds where someone doesn't want to give up that bet on the river. If this river bet got you half the pot, expect your opponent to say (or type), "I didn't think you were dumb enough to bet if you had no way to scoop me."

It's funny sometimes how dumb and very smart plays are the same ones in poker, but for different reasons.

Barry

[Justin Bonomo]

srsly... what % is this? Like less than 5%?

Completely irrelevant. When he does call, the outcome is the exact same as when we check, so you can ignore that option.

All that matters is whether or not the alternative is better. It doesn't matter how often we actually get the fold.