Mulligan on Tilt, 15 left.

[Justin Bonomo]

Originally Posted by Matt Vengrin

The main reason I folded here and please tell me if you think this is flawed logic is that I was picking up pots easier and I felt there was no need to gamboool.

Most players vastly overestimate their edge when they say things like this, but occasionally they are right.

Your equity w/ AK here is very significant. Its not a small edge.

[Justin Bonomo]

Sooners was asking me about the math, so here it is. Some might see this as optimistic math, but if it is, I think it is only slightly.

Notes: The A5s, KJs QJs, and TJs are supposed to be representative of the entire bluff range. So even though A5s is in there, A6s and A4s are not. He's not shoving any of those hands 100%, but he's shoving them all some % (by our most reasonable estimate possible).

The 4 random dead cards are supposed to estimate the impact on the card removal of the 6 people that have folded. This helps our equity significantly. Sure, one of them may have folded a king or something, but there's still 11 cards left that are likely to be low.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

6,191,161,704 games 13.797 secs 448,732,456 games/sec

Board:
Dead: 9s 7h 5d 3c

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.326% 30.33% 05.00% 1877680902 309380753.17 { AdKh }
Hand 1: 29.663% 27.59% 02.07% 1708274642 128213928.67 { 22+, ATs+, A5s, KJs+, QJs, JTs, ATo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 35.011% 31.09% 03.92% 1924709844 242901634.17 { 88+, AJs+, AJo+ }



So we have 35.323 % equity... a small edge, right? NO NO NO. THIS EDGE IS HUGE.


Main Pot: It's 147,522 to call. After we call, there will be 534,566 chips in the pot.

534,566 x .35326 (our equity, see above) is 188,840.8

From the main pot, we show a profit of 41,319 chips.

The side pot is a bit trickier. I'd have to spend some time setting up a stoxEV sim to factor in for the dead cards, so I'm just gonna run our range vs the big stacks. I took out the dead cards to counteract for not having the short stacks range in our (card removal, etc.)


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

118,148,976 games 0.094 secs 1,256,904,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.556% 45.39% 07.16% 53630664 8463496.00 { AdKh }
Hand 1: 47.444% 40.28% 07.16% 47591320 8463496.00 { 88+, AJs+, AJo+ }


---


There are 83,132 chips in the side pot of which 41,566 are ours. Our return (83,132 x .52556) = 43,690.85. This is a profit of 2,125 chips.

This brings our total profit to 43,444. We also slightly cover the bigger stack. This means that we will occasionally be left with 1.3k chips. Our equity with that stack is pretty huge because of the all-in ante factor. Being all-in for the antes is insanely profitable. You could argue this brings our total equity up to 45,000 or so.

And what do we have to weight that against? ICM calculations, and the fact that we can *lol* "pick up pots easily without a need to gamboool".

We're increasing our stack by 18% here on average. Are you really that confidant in your ability to outplay people that you will pass up on this edge? To put it another way, our stack is 31 big blinds, and this is over a 5 big blind edge.

And if we fold the hand, we now have under 29 big blinds... Are you REALLY going to outplay people enough with that stack? Are the REALLY that bad? I doubt it.

Don't fold.