Mulligan on Tilt, 15 left.

[Matt Vengrin]

Full Tilt Poker Game #10522927578: The Sunday Mulligan (77731969), Table 94 - 4000/8000 Ante 1000 - No Limit Hold'em - 1:46:33 ET - 2009/02/09
Seat 1: AJKHoosier1 (151,326)
Seat 2: Matt Vengrin (249,803)
Seat 3: macqueen56 (332,058)
Seat 5: GBecks (166,522)
Seat 6: crisbus (249,654)
Seat 7: ZENFUL (433,105)
Seat 8: Gator93 (126,564)
Seat 9: changeover (544,934)
AJKHoosier1 antes 1,000
Matt Vengrin antes 1,000
macqueen56 antes 1,000
GBecks antes 1,000
crisbus antes 1,000
ZENFUL antes 1,000
Gator93 antes 1,000
changeover antes 1,000
Gator93 posts the small blind of 4,000
changeover posts the big blind of 8,000
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Matt Vengrin [Ad Kh]
AJKHoosier1 folds
Matt Vengrin raises to 18,000
macqueen56 calls 18,000
GBecks raises to 165,522, and is all in
crisbus has 15 seconds left to act
crisbus raises to 248,654, and is all in
ZENFUL folds
Gator93 folds
changeover folds
Matt Vengrin:

Discuss

[Bryan Devonshire]

I've folded in this spot on the bubble, and like a fold here, but in a similar thread on that hand in hsmtt all the math guys said u gotta call.

[Bryan Devonshire]

How do these ranges look? I'm not sure how light GBecks is squeezing here and I think merits the most discussion.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

6,711,211,584 games 11.033 secs 608,285,288 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.173% 25.35% 05.82% 1701215772 390852899.67 { AdKh }
Hand 1: 30.532% 28.67% 01.86% 1924038408 125001320.67 { 22+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 38.296% 33.35% 04.94% 2238408973 331694210.67 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

[Justin Bonomo]

I don't know the players in question, but if they are good I'd expect them both to have slightly bigger ranges than the ones Devo provided. I think folding here would be bad unless at least one of the players is a known super-nit.

[Justin Bonomo]

Also, if we factor in card removal, our equity goes way up with AK.

I did a sim where I added 4 low cards to the list of dead cards (9753... one of each suit) and our equity went up an entire percent.

[Justin Bonomo]

Also look that Crisbus' range is over 38%. It doesn't need to be nearly that strong to justify overshoving for 20x BB effective with about 8 potentially dead BB in the pot, especially giving that the OR is considering "folding the top of his range". He should definitely have 99, AJs in his hand, and arguments can certainly be made for 88 and AJo too. And this is all assuming we don't even change the 20x BB stack's range, which will occasionally include random "bluff" hands like KT and A5s that we wouldn't always expect.

[Bryan Devonshire]

good posts Justin... I really do <3 these threads cause they're such crappy spots and lead to such good discussion-ish.

[Matt Vengrin]

Thanks for the responses guys,

I agree with what you guys posted and I ultimately decided on a fold. Gbecks had 77 and the other guy had AJ. The main reason I folded here and please tell me if you think this is flawed logic is that I was picking up pots easier and I felt there was no need to gamboool.

-Matt

[Bryan Devonshire]

In my hand they showed up with like AQ and 89, but I felt like an expert suckout dodger when they got there.

I think that since in both our hands the opps showed up with surprising holdings that this spot should probably be a call in general, but is also close enough that tournament dynamics should be what swings our decision either way imo.

[Russ Floyd]

Originally Posted by Matt Vengrin

Thanks for the responses guys,

I agree with what you guys posted and I ultimately decided on a fold. Gbecks had 77 and the other guy had AJ. The main reason I folded here and please tell me if you think this is flawed logic is that I was picking up pots easier and I felt there was no need to gamboool.

-Matt

I like you're logic here a lot. I have never relied solely on the mathematics but I have on reads. As stated it is going to depend on the ranges of the two and how active they were here but you almost always know that one of them is going to have a pp and one is going to have a big ace.
How I am running the table is going to definitely factor into my decisions in a spot like this. I mean if you are picking up pots w/o flipping, why on earth would you want to flip for your tourney life? If the table was tougher and I was getting 3 bet a lot I would call.