Wynn Classic 1k Fold Top 2
Talking to Barry last night at Heads up draw he asked me to post a hand & well it's The Bear so I listen.
I caught a lot of grief the other day from a top online pro for folding top 2 on flop but I was sure I was 100% beat. After reading through Justin's math from another thread I still feel correct but I'll let you guys decide after I give you a little history. Our 9 handed table was short 4 players for the first 30 minutes. Tricky and aggressive players feed on short handed situations and take every edge possible. The villain in this hand not only gave me 2 walks during this time but only raised 3 hands, two of which went to showdown where he had flopped a set and top top in the other hand. He just seemed super solid and his play and demeanor backed it up.
Blinds 50-100 I haven't done much and have 10k starting stack still while villain had won those hands and had 15k. I am in SB with 97sp and we are now 8 handed. UTG+1 is tight passive player and opens to 300. 3 callers to me and I call.
Flop 9h7h3c At this point I am watching the pre raiser who throws in 400 cbet which villain calls. I make it 1800 hoping the opener has the overpair and ships it on me. Opener mucks and villain tanks which he had not done yet. He then makes it 4800 so this is obviously it as to shippin it or mucking it with my stack. I am a very quick player and I rarely take more than a minute to make my decisions. Everything told me that he was super super strong from his action on hand to his demeanor and the way he made the call on flop and then the reraise. So there are only a few logical hands in villain's range. He could have a set of 3's(most likely) or a set of 7's or 9's or 97s also but I think he mucks 97pre std or not. He could have A3h but I think he would raise the opener and not flat and then he could have JTh 68h or T8h but I think he raises these on flop also.
This guy seemed so tight that I think he has 33 about 75% of the time 77 or 99 10% time and then the other combos or overpair the other 15%.
I am not a math guy as I said & see this as an easy fold(well not easy but as easy as folding top 2 gets)
Thoughts?
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