Aces against Dwan and Eastgate on HSP Season 5

[Todd Terry]

Wow, Tom is an animal.

As for whether Barry should c-bet the flop, people ordinarily don't go crazy in 8-way pots (which is I'm sure one of the reasons why Tom did it and why he got away with it), so at the time pot control wouldn't strike me as a huge issue, even though it is the classic rainbow paired low card board which lends itself to bluffs. And while ordinarily you aren't too concerned about giving a free card when you have AA on a T22 rainbow board, that's probably not the case with 7 other players in the hand. I disagree about the face-up aspect of c-betting to some extent, because I do think Barry has A2s in his preflop range given how deep they are, he could have TT, and the board is so so dry he could every once in a while c-bet the flop with nothing. But obviously overpairs represent a decent chunk of Barry's c-betting range. Check/calling the flop is going to turn Barry's hand even more face up, but keeps the pot under control. Yeah, after watching the whole hand we can say maybe it's best to check the flop, but at the time I think I would have bet.

I would have folded on the flop after Peter called Tom's raise. While there is a rational train of thought under which AA could be the best hand -- Peter believes that Tom's range consists mostly of bluffs, Peter has a bluff catching hand like 77 or JT, Peter knows how strong his coldcall of Tom's raise will look to Barry and believes that he can get Barry to fold an overpair -- but it strikes me as occurring infrequently enough that folding has to be right. And that's looking at it just from the perspective of is my hand best right now, there are two more streets to play and it's going to be pretty much impossible to put any more chips in the pot with AA unless you happen to spike an A on the turn.

Peter's very fast fold to Tom's turn bet would have confused the hell out of me, as it did Barry, because I would have been almost certain he had a 2 in his hand given his flop call and I don't see how he can fold a 2 so quickly. It may be that Barry's overcall on the flop scared Peter as much as or more than Tom's continuing to bet on the turn.

[Justin Bonomo]

Yeah, after watching the whole hand we can say maybe it's best to check the flop, but at the time I think I would have bet.

I'm not trying to be results oriented.

In heads up pots, if the flop hits a range in such a way that your opponent is much more likely to hit a pair than you, you shouldn't c-bet often.

In multi-way pots, if the flop hits your range in such a way that you are much less likely to have the nuts or close to it (in this case a deuce), you shouldn't c-bet often.

[Barry Greenstein]

I really feel the analysis of this hand here and on other forums has been pretty poor. I understand most players play shorter stacked tournaments or sit-n-gos and against weaker opposition. If Peter hadn't fooled me and I had moved in on the turn, the comments would be much different.

1.Some people suggested that I should have limped originally. It's definitely a bad most against several loose three bettors and loose callers. If I had done that and lost to Peter I would have only had myself to blame. I concede that a 3000 open would have been better than an open for 2500 and I started doing that later in the session.

2. Some people suggested that I should have checked the flop. I totally disagree. I was about to win a bigger pot when Tom raised. Not only that, I was never going to go broke against Peter because I bet. If I had checked, Peter's actions wouldn't have indicated as much strength and I might have gotten in trouble.

3. I got foiled by Peter's very questionable preflop call, but I definitely take some of the blame because of my less than optimal opening raise.

4. Tom's raise on the flop was probably not good and seemed destined to cost him money. But it was a stark flop and he felt it was possible that he had the best hand, so he decided to pay $37,200 to find out. As it was, he needed a series of strange events for it to succeed:

a) Peter having a Deuce that he didn't feel comfortable playing back with.
b) Peter not taking time before folding on the turn and fooling me.
c) Me not figuring out why Tom wasn't afraid of Tens full.

5. People have claimed that Peter folded partly because of my overcall. I will try to get Peter to post on here, but I think he simply thought Tom had a bigger kicker, and I wasn't the cause of his fold.

6. People criticize my flop call as a terrible play. If I would have followed through, it would have been called a great decision, and I did make it for the right reason, kind of. I thought the raise was small enough that I should call and reevaluate on the turn. That idea, coupled with the slim chance of hitting an Ace convinced me to call. I definitely thought I had Tom beat when I called. I needed to see some evidence of weakness from Peter to proceed. Unfortunately when I got that, I changed my view on Tom.

7. The main reason for Tom's bet on the turn wasn't anything too deep. It was just that we had demonstrated that maybe we weren't committed to putting our chips in the pot. Since most of you (red pros) are top tournament players, you should understand this concept very well. If someone doesn't reraise you on the previous street, it's often because they want to see if you can still fire once they have shown strength from their call. Tom is great at this, as he showed. I will try to get him to post here to validate this or contradict it.

8. No doubt Tom outplayed both of us on the turn and was the hero in spectacular fashion. Also no doubt that he was the only one at the table who knew what was going on as it was unfolding. Almost everyone in the forums said it was obvious that Peter folded a Deuce, yet everyone at the table, knowing I had an overpair, wanted to bet that my hand was better than Peter's. Peter fooled us all by his quick turn fold, and that was a key to my laydown.

9. One thing I want to add. No one was aware that Tom had bluffed until he held his hand after I folded and acted like he had bluffed.

Barry

[Justin Bonomo]

Tom's raise on the flop was probably not good and seemed destined to cost him money. But it was a stark flop and he felt it was possible that he had the best hand, so he decided to pay $37,200 to find out.

Lol. This is not why Tom raised.

His logic was something along the lines of, "It's very unlikely I have the best hand, but this is a good bluff spot that many people don't take. Barry most likely has an overpair, and I can most likely take him off it. Out of all the hands I could bluff with, this is the best because I have a TT blocker. I can't profitably call because I rarely have the best hand, but I can profitably bluff here because I have the T bocker."

Edit: Also he has 2 outs vs almost anything which isn't completely irrelevant. Also I didn't mention some of the obvious things like how strong it looks to raise into 7 opponents, and how rarely people bluff in that spot.

but I think he [Peter] simply thought Tom had a bigger kicker, and I wasn't the cause of his fold.

Do you really think Peter is calling the flop with AT? If he is, it's only because he thinks a combination of a) Tom is bluffing, and b) my call will look so strong that Barry will fold an overpair.

Sure, Peter can have JJ or QQ, but given that he didn't squeeze preflop, and how many more combinations of 2x there are, him having a deuce is much much more likely.

I think Peter has enough experience against Tom that he wouldn't be folding trips there if you didn't overcall the flop.

[Barry Greenstein]

Originally Posted by Justin Bonomo

Lol. This is not why Tom raised.

He raised to give me 37K? I was going to reraise, so he doesn't have any outs against anything. I would have certainly gotten all in with him on the flop. Fortunately for me, and unluckily for him, I held Aces, so there was even a small chance that I was ahead of a slowplayed overpair by him.

His blocker wasn't nearly as relevant head-up since, although it makes him confident I don't have Tens full, I'm not representing that hand and not concerned about Tom trying to knock out the six players behind him when he flops that. As a matter of fact, if you assume that the overwhelming majority of the hands that I will bet into seven people are overpairs and hands with a Ten, then a Ten in Tom's hand is a negative indicator. I will more likely have the overpairs I will be reraising with then the 10-9, J-10, Q-10, and K-10 suiteds that I might fold.

As often happens in three-way pots, extreme strength can be perceived. Peter's playing of the hand and subsequent call of Tom's raise changed everything from my perspective.

Do you really think Peter is calling the flop with AT? If he is, it's only because he thinks a combination of a) Tom is bluffing, and b) my call will look so strong that Barry will fold an overpair.

Sure, Peter can have JJ or QQ, but given that he didn't squeeze preflop, and how many more combinations of 2x there are, him having a deuce is much much more likely.

I thought all these hands I could beat were possible, but not likely. I have never mentioned this before, but I thought about the three-way hand Niman Kenkre (Samoleus) posted on these forums where I suggested calling and seeing what develops and you suggested folding. We are carrying over our disagreement to this hand. I thought Tom's raise was small enough, given how much money I had left, to make the call.

http://pokerroad.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1762

I think Peter has enough experience against Tom that he wouldn't be folding trips there if you didn't overcall the flop.

I have discussed this hand with Peter a few times, and he has been interviewed about it. He has never mentioned this as a factor. I don't think he would have been afraid to get 200k in with me. But he was afraid of going off for 500k with Tom. I expect Peter to weigh in on this at sometime.

It wasn't the experience, or lack of it, with Tom that factored in here. It was lack of experience having 500k in real money on the table. His large buy-in was misplaced bravado. Maybe if you get a chance to play on this show next season you'll understand!

Barry

[Jimmy Fricke]

Barry, I really don't feel like you're giving Justin enough credit here (or Tom for that matter). A slowplayed overpair? Really? Tom was stone bluffing on this flop and would've instantly folded to your reraise. I don't know why you seem to always want to be the aggressor in a spot where the only time they put money in the pot after you raise is as a bluff or they have you crushed.

What possible hand do you think Eastgate has on the flop when he coldcalls 37k? That is not a small raise. You bet 10k and Tom made it 37k right after you and he COLDCALLS from the sb? There is NO CHANCE he doesn't have at least a deuce here. If you knew that and still called the flop raise, you got exactly what you wanted on the turn and then you still folded. I just don't see the logical jumps here, and a lot of it comes from the fact that I still don't think you're giving Tom enough credit here at all for making high level plays. Not the bluff itself, but just some of the things you've said about his hand ranges.

Also, if Justin is going to be on the next high stakes poker with 500k, please tell me where to buy pieces.

[Barry Greenstein]

Originally Posted by Jimmy Fricke

Barry, I really don't feel like you're giving Justin enough credit here (or Tom for that matter). A slowplayed overpair? Really? Tom was stone bluffing on this flop and would've instantly folded to your reraise. I don't know why you seem to always want to be the aggressor in a spot where the only time they put money in the pot after you raise is as a bluff or they have you crushed.


Also, if Justin is going to be on the next high stakes poker with 500k, please tell me where to buy pieces.

Jimmy,

I agree he is going to fold to my reraise. I guess your point is that if he raised me back, I should fold. I just decided I wasn't going to do that, partly because I wasn't too deep.

We have some disagreements here, but fortunately I acquired the number to Durrrrland and I sent a message to the young wizard to come here and help us. I received information that he will enlighten us within the next few days.

Also, if Justin buys in for 500k and has no more money available if he goes broke, it might be a miserable session. See the 500k buy-in game from season 4 for examples.

Barry

[Justin Bonomo]

Barry, you made a lengthy argument as to why you wouldn't fold aces against Durrrr in a heads up pot. That has nothing to do with what I said.

The part I was disagreeing with was that you thought Durrrr might think he has the best hand in this 8 way pot.

Sure, it's possible he has the best hand. But by any reasonable analysis, at the point in time where he raised to 37k, there is no way he thought he was a favorite to have the best hand.

[Mike Watson]

Before I write anything I just want to say this is the sickest hand I've ever seen in a televised poker game.

I basically agree with everything Justin wrote except for the flop check. Preflop $2500 is too small a standard open with the antes being so big and stacks so deep. Peter's call is obviously bad even getting huge immediate odds for a lot of reasons, many of which are made all too clear in this hand. I think the flop bet is good. Admittedly we allow ourselves to get put in some really tricky spots but checking really doesn't makes things all that much better and there is tons of value in a bet at this table. Barry definitely should have folded to the flop raise after peter cold calls. One of Tom and Peter has at least a deuce almost always. Your point about winning a huge pot if you catch an ace is good though but you're definitely not deep enough to justify calling for that reason and an outside chance of showing down the best hand somehow.

And the turn is just a sick spot that only durrr can put you in. You know he is a good enough player to realize Peter probably has at least a deuce and Barry definitely has at least a big overpair. Of all the players in the world smart enough to read hands that well, how many are capable of firing a huge bet in here as a bluff? There is basically only one that I know of. Against basically anyone considered very good at poker Peter's turn fold is easy. They can't be betting worse for value and no one sane would ever bluff there. Barry is definitely not giving anyone enough credit and that's part of the genius of Tom's play. To 99% of people who see this hand Tom is just an overaggro monkey who overvalues top pair and got insanely lucky two people made terrible folds to him, and that's fantastic for his image.

[Bryan Devonshire]

One thing I noticed in the video was Durrr thinking on the flop after Bear's flop bet. Barry mentioned in a post that he didn't look at Tom, and I think that Barry would have been able to pick something up on the flop. It felt to me, watching the video, that Durrr was plotting, rather than thinking about how to extract max value. I feel like Tom realized everything mentioned above, decided to turn his top pair into a bluff with the blocker, and pulled the trigger on the turn taking Peter off a pretty obvious weak deuce imo.

So, I think pre should have been a little bigger, I think the flop should have been bigger (it was a 10k bet into 21k and change), and I think after Peter calls we need to be folding, esp if we are going to "see what happens" on the turn.

I don't mind the c-bet, as long as we're willing to play big, goofy pots OOP with the nut overpair.

Also, is Durrr flatting UTG+1 with enough 2x hands and then raising into the field with said hands often? I feel like just based on that (if accurate) info his range is skewed toward bluff much more often in this spot.