Hand Deep in 25k WPT Championship

[David "Not Bakes" Baker]

Day 4 of the WPT Championship with 29 left our table is 7 handed and I have been card dead for the whole day, but tons of total junk for the last hour and a half that I have been at this table. I am real short, the blinds are 12k-24k with 3k ante, I have 195k behind my 24k BB......Lucky Chewy opens for 74k from the cutoff and I look down in the BB and see Q9dd he has close to a million in chips and has been pretty solid from what I have seen. I know he is fully aware of my stack size when raising, what is your course of action and why?

[Jimmy Fricke]

Really key to know how deep the SB and the button are here.

[Justin Bonomo]

Laying 195 to win 276 if we shove (obv we have no fold equity barring the occasional seizure). That's putting in 41.4% of the chips in the pot.

Vs. a reasonable range, we are roughly 42.5 or 43%.

So it's very slightly +cEV to shove, but given the value of tournament life, and increase in payjumps at 27, folding becomes better than shoving.

So the question now is, call or fold?

If we call, we are putting in 50k chips when there's 131. So we're getting 2.6 to 1. Obv this would be +ev if we could then check it down. We're out of position, so how much equity do we lose when we call and have to play postflop?

I'll let others discuss before I continue. This can be fairly close to solved with simple assumptions.

[Jimmy Fricke]

I fold here pretty much all the time and I think Chewy is simply not opening with flat out worse hands than you other than like JTs and MAYBE J9s because he knows you're shoving like 20% or maybe more.

[David "Not Bakes" Baker]

I would like a few more opinions before I give my thoughts on what I did and why to get some input on my thought process. Here is a little more information that may or may not help in answering.....no pay jump until 20, also I had Freddy Deeb with 1 million to my left and Christian Harder with 2 million to his left so any shove opptys I would have would get called by 1 of these 2 unless they had total trash if my stack is anything shy of 200k

[Ryan Daut]

Originally Posted by Justin Bonomo

Laying 195 to win 276 if we shove (obv we have no fold equity barring the occasional seizure). That's putting in 41.4% of the chips in the pot.

Vs. a reasonable range, we are roughly 42.5 or 43%.

So it's very slightly +cEV to shove, but given the value of tournament life, and increase in payjumps at 27, folding becomes better than shoving.

So the question now is, call or fold?

If we call, we are putting in 50k chips when there's 131. So we're getting 2.6 to 1. Obv this would be +ev if we could then check it down. We're out of position, so how much equity do we lose when we call and have to play postflop?

I'll let others discuss before I continue. This can be fairly close to solved with simple assumptions.

what is our plan if we call? shove any time we have at least an over, gutshots, flush draws, pairs and anything better than that? check calling some of the time? are we just check folding all the a or K high boards where we have no pair no draw? maybe front shove those as well. eh i dunno, calling is weird. if we stop and go 100% of flops then we lose some of the hands we dominate and are ahead of that flop nothing and almost none of the hands other than those. i dont know if we should be check folding some flops cause we are giving up equity cause there will be 170k in the pot, we have 120 left so we are getting about 2.5:1 and its hard to imagine we dont have 28% equity on many boards (we dont even need 28% cause hes not going to call with his total air so the fold equity adds a ton to our stack)

meh i prob just jam pre. if i have reason to believe his 74k is a sign of strength or is opening tight id tighten my shoving range to QJs or better but i think you should be shoving as wide as Q9s and maybe Q8s

[Justin Bonomo]

FWIW, I think this is a fold.

[Bryan Devonshire]

I fold too. I think it's close enough though that it doesn't really matter. How likely do you think that you'll get a chance to stuff in the next few hands?

[Christian Harder]

seems decently close but id fold, chewy opened to 72k, not 74k (not that it matters) and he wasn't crazy active or anything.

[Annette Obrestad]

I'm folding every time. I'd almost rather shove without looking utg if I dont get a chance beofre that, than stick my chips in with no FE in that spot. Also, for me, calling is out of the question. I'd never call a raise here with less than 20x, even then I'm probably always folding or shoving.