Busto hand from WPT Borgata

[Jonathan Little]

Things were going pretty well going into day 3 of the $10,000 event at Borgata. I had a good 1.5x average stack of around $430,000. Vivek "Psyduck" Rajkumar was directly to my right with around the same amount of chips, but besides that, my table was fairly soft, although it wouldnt matter much because we were going to be the first to break. I have quit a bit of history with Vivek. We used to play the $200 and higher buyin sngs on Party and both started playing mtts when Party closed. In big live mtts, he was 2-0 against me in big coin flips and constantly tries to outplay me, by either 3betting pre or floating tons. He must think im awful or something.

Anyways, in this hand, a guy raises in the hijack to 20,000 (sorry, I dont remember his stack, although I imagine it was 200,000 or so) and Vivek reraises in the cutoff to 60,000. I pick up JJ on the button. I know Vivek could be 3betting here with a wide range. I guess I am just wondering if the overpush is the right play here or if something like 160,000 or even calling would be better. I assumed Vivek would assume I have TT+, AK+. I assumed if I just called, he would give me a range of 66+, AJ+ and maybe some random extra hands. Also, if I call 60,000, I would probably stack off on basically any low board and probably call at least once, assuming it is heads up, on most boards. Basically, I guess I am saying if I do just call, it wont be a small pot either way. So, is it better to just call, 3bet, or overpush in this spot?

[Justin Bonomo]

What are blinds? What's Vivek's stack size?

Who is the HJ? His stack is also important. We need to know what range Vivek is 3-betting here, and we can't do that without knowing anything about their stack sizes or who the HJ even is.

[Jonathan Little]

Sorry, I got dumb editing it and somehow took out the blinds. It was 3000/6000-500. Vivek had 420,000, so I would have 1.5bbs left if I got stacked. I looked around online and couldnt figure out the other guys stack, but again, it was at least fairly deep. As for Viveks 3betting range, off the top of my head, it is prob 66+, A5s+, A8o+, 76s+, JTo+ and maybe some other semirandom hands thrown in.

[Jimmy Fricke]

I really don't like calling here ever. I think it's a somewhat automatic 4bet/call if you really think that is his range. For the sake of argument, discount the original raiser in this instance and analyze what you think his 3betting range is.

66+,A5s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,76s,A8o+,K9 o+,QTo+,JTo

Is somewhat close to what you said, which is 23.7% of hands.

If you shove or 4bet, I think his range for stacking off is QQ+ and AK (probably JJ too but you have two of the jacks so we can discount it for determining the percentage) which is 2.6% of hands.

So he's folding approximately 8 times as much as he stacks off. Even if you add in AQ and TT it's only up to 4.7% of hands which means he's folding 4x as much as he calls your 4bet given the 3betting range that you give him. That means you could literally muck your cards when he calls your shove and it's still +EV.

Needless to say, I really really doubt Vivek's 3betting range is as big as you think it is against someone who you both think is some random. He may be somewhat crazy but I really doubt it has anything to do with thinking you're terrible. Vivek is friends with Jason Somerville who I've played with and he does the same thing to me, it's basically just ****ing with you for the sake of ****ing with you because he thinks he can get away from it but in the big pots he'll tend to actually have something. I don't think Vivek is ever 3bet/folding here against a 200k stack anything but utter garbage so that right there polarizes his range a ton and it can't really be calculated through means like this.

I think your play is automatic. Vivek could definitely call with worse sometime and I would still expect him to fold probably 50% of the time but I think running into a big hand here is a real possibility.

[Barry Greenstein]

You've got the wrong stack size to play this hand: good chips but you're gone if you're wrong. If the hijack was a loose passive player it makes the problem more difficult since it makes it more likely that Vivek is isolating with marginal hands. Otherwise, you are giving Vivek great odds with shoves or semi-shoves since he is only getting all-in against you with the three higher pairs and sometimes Ace-King.

Chip equity calculations don't help much in this situation, since even if it comes out plus EV, it probably isn't. Situations where two big stacks collide late in a tournament where it can go either way are minus EV for both players in the long run and plus EV for the rest of the field.

You can't justify calling this much of your stack for set value. Getting all in on a low flop gives you slightly better odds if he will always make a continuation bet when he is beat, but it also allows you to lose pots that you would have won preflop by raising. There's probably not much difference in the long run in calling and deciding preflop vs reraising.

In some sense you are out of position since Vivek got to take the first stab at the other guy. These situations are akin to prisoner dilemna problems where you don't fight with Vivek unless he isolates the bad players too much causing you to feel the need to reraise to send him a message that you won't let him prevent you from getting your shots at the other players.

Barry

[Juan Carlos Alvarado]

So if Vivek is only getting it in when he has JJ crushed, but it's profitable to shove vs his 3 betting range, then would you also shove 77? Or am I missing the point? (numbers aren't my forte if you guys haven't noticed.)

TBH, I think folding here is fine.. Especially this deep in the tourney and with these stacks, at a soft table. I think you can pick up 80k with much less risk in other situations.

At the same time if Vivek has 3bet more than 2 times at this table I think 4bet/calling JJ becomes better because he can factor in the possibility of you bluffing and stack off lighter.

[Justin Bonomo]

Originally Posted by Jonathan Little

As for Viveks 3betting range, off the top of my head, it is prob 66+, A5s+, A8o+, 76s+, JTo+ and maybe some other semirandom hands thrown in.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that vivek is a good player, and this is such a terrible 3 bet range, that I don't think it's reasonable.

There are some guys that are great to 3-bet bluff. There are others that are great to 3-bet for value, and also some good ones that are great to 3-bet with polarized ranges. Even if this player is the latter (which I doubt since you know nothing about him), it's probably not a good idea to 3-bet him with 99, AJ, etc.

FWIW, I agree with Barry. Even if this play is +cEV, it might still be -ev. However, I think that's the type of discussion that should come at the end of an argument, not the beginning. It generally hinders real discussion about the hand.

[Justin Bonomo]

Jon, there's gotta be some info you can give us about the HJ. Is he playing tight? Is he playing every hand? If you were Vivik, do you think he would make a profitable spot for a 3-bet bluff?

The hand isn't even worth thinking about without this info.

[Justin Bonomo]

Originally Posted by Juan Carlos Alvarado

So if Vivek is only getting it in when he has JJ crushed, but it's profitable to shove vs his 3 betting range, then would you also shove 77? Or am I missing the point? (numbers aren't my forte if you guys haven't noticed.)

IF he's 3 betting ~24% of hands, and folding everything but ~3% of hands, then of course it's hugely possible to shove any 2, even if we factor in the original raisor to call with the same 3% of hands.

The only way Vivek can play this way is if he thinks Jon is a tight ABC player that will pass up on this huge edge.

Obviously, I don't think Vivek is playing this way...

[Jonathan Little]

The more I think about it, the more I think the hj had around 300,000. He was probably in his 40s and was a total unknown to me. This hand came up probably 10 minutes into the day, so I really have no reads on him. Fwiw, I ended up just pushing. He tanked for a while then mumbled something like "could you ever have AQ here." At that point, I am praying for him to fold cause he obviously has AK. I normally say nothing at all in spots like this but alllllmost said "of course I never have AQ here." Is this one of the best spots to speak up in order to try to get the fold?