Crazy spot with 3rd nuts in WPT Borgata.

[Jimmy Fricke]

First level of Borgata main event. $10k buyin, my table is relatively tough. Very tight middle eastern guy limps utg at 25/50. 40k effective stacks. 3 more limpers to me, and I make it 400 otb with QTdd. UTG and one other limper calls.

Flop Ah8h4d. Checks to me, I bet 1100. Villain calls, other limper folds. Turn is the 7d. He bets out 1500, I decide to raise to 4500. He immediately grabs 3 1k chips and fake tanks before throwing them in.

River is the 5d. He quickly takes his chip off his cards and shoves his stack in.

I crossposted this from 2+2, interested to see what the 'live pros' think.

[Thuy Doan]

Hey Jimmy,

Only hand that would play the hand like this that has u beat is Ax of diamonds. Kx diamonds doesn't make sense unless he's limp calling UTG with K8d so you effectively have the 2nd nuts.

He could also have something like 8x of diamonds that had a pair+flush draw on the turn and hit the river.

I call and get stacked.

[Barry Greenstein]

I've folded the second or third flush several times in spots like this where it makes sense to place the Ace of the flush suit in my tight opponent's hand. Of course, if I get knocked out of the tournament before the final table, I start second guessing my fold.

Unfortunately, this is not a problem to be solved on paper. It's situations like this that make you realize you should have been watching every bet this guy made in previous hands. Did he ever bet out when he made his hand? Did you ever see him check the river when the card ginned him? Is he trying to get back at me for some aggressive action I took against him? Does he think I bet whenever I am checked to? Is he a rank beginner who will jump out of his seat and bet out his stack when he flops top set?

I know you'll say that you hadn't been playing long enough with him and you didn't see his hands go to showdown, but acquiring that information any way you can is part of the skill of playing live tournaments. There is often something to be picked up, just hearing people talk and seeing what their betting amounts are in other hands. Many players coming from the Internet are bored when they play live, because they don't scrutinize and mentally catalogue their opponent's actions in live poker. This lazy tendency may become habitual if you use tracking software, since you might not feel the need to watch betting patterns for yourself when you play online.

This hand is similar to the High Stakes Poker hand where Doyle folded something like the third nut flush against Jamie Gold. Doyle immediately told me what he had and asked what I would do. I told him I would definitely have called. Doyle claimed he reads Jamie pretty well and he was sure Jamie felt like he had the nuts. I said Jamie overvalues hands and might have thought he had the nuts even with a straight. We later found out Jamie had the next lower flush, but I believe Doyle read Jamie more accurately than I did.

I'm sure that I don't know what I would have done in this situation as you wrote it, but I think at the table I'm right more often than I'm wrong. I hope I'm not deluding myself, since I fold more often than not when someone makes one of those "I have the nuts" bets unless I have gotten an earlier indication that they can bet the farm without the nuts.

Barry

[Juan Carlos Alvarado]

Limp the button and fold when the utg guy leads the flop ? IDK, I wasn't at the table but I just try to keep the pot small so early and this deep....I don't mind how you played it at all though, I think this is a spot where it's all about what read you have and what tells the dude gives off during the hand. The way you said he insta-grabbed chips but then took a while to call seems to me like an AdXd hand, he knows he's going to continue, but doesn't know if he should 3bet or just call.

I'd probably sweat him for like 4 minutes and see if he gives off a big tell in the process.

[Tony Dunst]

I like the iso raise pre. I def call river, you basically have the 2nd nuts here not 3rd.

[Jonathan Little]

I probably wouldnt raise the turn all that often, but assuming you do, you have to get in unless you have some super sick read on the guy.

[Justin Bonomo]

I've discussed this hand with Gobbo, so I'm gonna leave out the details of my opinion and just say, "my default here vs random guy over 30 repping nuts pretty well (axdd) and overbetting huge on the river is to fold".

That being said, I completely agree with Barry's post.

Also, I don't like your bet size on the flop or turn.

On the flop, you bet 1100 into 1375. Bet less. No one is calling you on the flop without an ace or a draw, and if you want to take the hand down against either of those, you need 2+ barrels anyway. Bet 800ish. Even less can probably work.

On the turn when he leads into you, his most likely hand is a mediumish ace, AT or something. If you want him off the hand, make it 6k. Or just call if you don't think you can get him to fold an ace.

[Justin Bonomo]

Originally Posted by Jonathan Little

I probably wouldnt raise the turn all that often, but assuming you do, you have to get in unless you have some super sick read on the guy.

You know he's betting like ~34k into ~12k, right? Almost 3x pot. 800x BB deep in live tournament against someone that has been tight, your default should not be to call with the 3rd nuts IMO, especially when the nuts is decently repped.

[Justin Bonomo]

Oh, I just realized we have the 4th nuts instead of the 3rd.

That would be a sick line if this guy took it with 86dd.

Also, I would have a ton of respect for this guy if he took this line with the bare ace of diamonds, but I wouldn't give credit for a play that advanced and risky to some tight guy I don't know anything about.

[Amit Makhija]

sick hand, i probably fold, this bet is the nuts so often given that the Ad is not on the board, his hand is consistent throughout as the nut flush, and like barry said, unless i have prior knowledge that he overvalues hands or has random huge spew tendencies i think you have to fold. When he overbets the river like this its for value like every time and I really doubt he takes this line with a set etc making your hand only slightly better than a bluff catcher. It sucks to fold essentially the second nuts after youve backdoored it and your hand is underrepped (your repping top set or tptk type hands) but i still think my default line live in this spot is to fold.