RailHeaven vs Phil Galfond

[Jay Rosenkrantz]

Can't really give any reads other than that JMan is about as tough as they come. He tends to be a really big calling station, but other than that, he's smart, creative and typically would never expect me to pure bluff if I lead the turn.

So two questions:

1. Who checks turn? If we check and he bets 11.4k, call or checkraise?

2. If we lead turn for 11.4k and he raises to 40k, call or fold? If we call and river blanks what are we doing facing a 1/2 pot, 2/3 pot, or shove (assuming we check)? Does a board pairing card change anything?

Full Tilt Poker $500/$1000 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

lady marmelade (MP): $167263.00
David Benyamine (CO): $191915.00
Patrik Antonius (BTN): $656301.50
Hero (SB): $165873.00
OMGClayAiken (BB): $169812.50
trex313 (UTG): $101291.00

Pre Flop: ($1500.00) Hero is SB with K K
4 folds, Hero raises to $3000, OMGClayAiken calls $2000

Flop: ($6000.00) 8 T 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $4800, OMGClayAiken calls $4800

Turn: ($15600.00) 5 (2 players)

[Isaac Haxton]

I would bet, bet, bet kings (or even as little as KT) against jman (or any other very good player) as long as the turn and river aren't 7 or 9. This kind of board with a billion gutshots and pair+draw hands means we're betting flop and turn as a semibluff often and he's getting to the river with pretty weak 1 pair hands a lot but raising to protect sets and two pairs a lot of the time so we're in a great position to valuebet thin and bluff often. Jman is better than just about anyone else about slowplaying sets to protect what would otherwise be a weak range in spots like this but he still has a pretty weak range.

[Barry Greenstein]

Jay,

First of all, I question your description of Phil Galfond's (Jman, OMGClayAiken) respect for your bets. I have only played a few hands with you, but I know you're a heads-up specialist and I heard Vanessa Selbst say on Cash Plays that you and she think a lot alike when it comes to poker strategy. It is hard for me to fold top pair against Vanessa, no matter what line she takes, unless the board ends up with four to a straight flush in a suit I don't have. And even then, she'd probably show me a bluff.

Of course, it would be much easier to play this hand if either you or Phil had less than $60k. In that case, I might check to check-raise, and try to get all-in. Since you guys have so much in front, it may be better to check to check-call the turn and river and not give him the chance to get me for so much with the check-raise line, where I'd generally be playing a big pot only when I'm beat.

If I check call the turn, I would probably do it with a five to ten second hesitation, so it looks like I have a problem. At least that may get me an extra bet on the river sometimes when I have the best hand.

I still question your implication that you don't have a crazy enough image to just go ahead and bet and get called all the way through by an inferior hand, a line which also prevents giving free cards. I would take this line if you think, based on recent history, Phil thinks you are a habitual check-raiser in this spot and will check behind you too frequently when he is beat.

If I choose to bet the turn and get raised, I don't know in a vacuum how I will proceed. It certainly depends on what I think his impression is of my strength based on our previous history.

In answer to the question about the board pairing, I will probably proceed the same, feeling better about it if one of the smaller cards pair. I won't lead the river in the cases where he has the betting lead on the turn.

Barry

[Jay Rosenkrantz]

Barry - Vanessa and I might think similarly (about heads up, definitely), but thinking and doing are two different things! If she played this hand she would bet 46o on the turn and pot bet a king on the river and claim it was for value :-).

I'm not at all saying I won't get paid when I bet. I'm just saying that this board is just such a poor board to pure bluff against Phil once he calls the flop that my range is going to be narrowed to semi-bluffs and top pair or better if I bet, but if I check, my hand is quite a bit more difficult to define (which is why I'm thinking of checkraising).

Phil will almost definitely call me down with a ten if I lead. With stacks as deep as they are, though, I'm a little concerned with what he will do with a hand like 89 and the like on the turn, and protecting myself against semibluff raises as I think stacks are really good for Phil to raise/fold and check back blank rivers/value bet rivers that improve him, rather than simply calling with his pair+gutshot hands. I guess by that logic I can just bet with impunity and call a raise, checking and folding nearly every river if he bets (and winning when he checks back). And betting nearly every blank river if he calls.

But I still think there's some merit to checking and letting him value cut himself with Tx, or trying to stack Tx by checkraising. Checking KK here also protects me from getting floated when I c-bet the flop with nothing and have no bluff opportunity on the turn, or when I want to buy myself free cards in the future when I check. Re: the problem of giving Phil free cards when I check, I think that vs him, I'm so often folding in my spot that there is a good chance he will just bet 100% of his hands on the turn to protect himself against giving free cards to me. And if I do c/c, he now has the initiative to evaluate his action on the river.

Ike - agree with most everything you say, but Phil is smart enough to balance his weak range by punishing me for trying to value bet him thinly (I think, at least).

I don't know. There's something to be said for just betting the top of my range in this spot and not worrying about anything else, but against the best players, and someone who thinks about psychology as much as Phil, I think there's merit in thinking about alternative lines for various reasons.

By the way, for you guys who are just bet/bet/betting - is there any hand you checkraise on the turn? What/which/why?

[Phil D'Auteuil]

i can't imagine not betting this turn and almost any river and i also can't imagine not betting air to bet the river a lot as well.

c/raising seems bad as he has so many pairs + straight draws that will call but not bet themselves. If u checked i guess c/raising could be good since it seems like a bad spot to check a strong hand + u know that he knows that u know that he's rarely very strong, all point towards a believable bluff c/raise maybe and therefore making it a better value c/raise! Altho I'd still rarely do it and lead almost everytime.

[Christian Harder]

**Warning don't play HSNL** .... if you c/r turn, what are you doing to a 3 bet shove? seems pretty gross, im sure you have a lot of history with Phil G, but against most players where you don't, if you check the turn, you should flat almost always, being this deep. Seems like you answered your question in your other post in that if you bet turn you should b/c it and c/f river

[Ryan Daut]

Originally Posted by Jay Rosenkrantz

Barry - Vanessa and I might think similarly (about heads up, definitely), but thinking and doing are two different things! If she played this hand she would bet 46o on the turn and pot bet a king on the river and claim it was for value :-).

I'm not at all saying I won't get paid when I bet. I'm just saying that this board is just such a poor board to pure bluff against Phil once he calls the flop that my range is going to be narrowed to semi-bluffs and top pair or better if I bet, but if I check, my hand is quite a bit more difficult to define (which is why I'm thinking of checkraising).

Phil will almost definitely call me down with a ten if I lead. With stacks as deep as they are, though, I'm a little concerned with what he will do with a hand like 89 and the like on the turn, and protecting myself against semibluff raises as I think stacks are really good for Phil to raise/fold and check back blank rivers/value bet rivers that improve him, rather than simply calling with his pair+gutshot hands. I guess by that logic I can just bet with impunity and call a raise, checking and folding nearly every river if he bets (and winning when he checks back). And betting nearly every blank river if he calls.

But I still think there's some merit to checking and letting him value cut himself with Tx, or trying to stack Tx by checkraising. Checking KK here also protects me from getting floated when I c-bet the flop with nothing and have no bluff opportunity on the turn, or when I want to buy myself free cards in the future when I check. Re: the problem of giving Phil free cards when I check, I think that vs him, I'm so often folding in my spot that there is a good chance he will just bet 100% of his hands on the turn to protect himself against giving free cards to me. And if I do c/c, he now has the initiative to evaluate his action on the river.

Ike - agree with most everything you say, but Phil is smart enough to balance his weak range by punishing me for trying to value bet him thinly (I think, at least).

I don't know. There's something to be said for just betting the top of my range in this spot and not worrying about anything else, but against the best players, and someone who thinks about psychology as much as Phil, I think there's merit in thinking about alternative lines for various reasons.

By the way, for you guys who are just bet/bet/betting - is there any hand you checkraise on the turn? What/which/why?

really good post and other than the obvious 80% pot bets down i think there are a couple options here.

check/call or check/raise are both ok options. depends a lot on what phil thinks about how often you cbet this flop, how often you check fold it on the turn, and how often he thinks you think he thinks you check fold the turn, but i think i prefer check/raise cause we might get phil to think that youre check folding this turn too much and want to punish one of his float/bets. even though he likes to float/check/bet to rep more value type lines with 2nd or 3rd pair i think he mixes in a good amount of turn bets here and this is a pretty good spot for a c/r.

another option would be to overbet 30k on the turn. it sets up a really interesting spot on the river. if phil calls the overbet you could check the river hoping he tries something funky with a double float hand thinking you were fos and would give up. you could also continue and overbet pot on river and try to get it all in instead of just the bet bet bet line which would get i dunno 50k value.

cool spot to think about that most people dont

[Bryan Devonshire]

yah +1 to good post.. good enough that we were silent on it for 2.5 months?!? Thanks for the bump Phil.

what do you think he will put you on if you c/r the turn? that range answers what we do with a 3-bet shove imo.

i don't really like folding the hand ever here; if we want to keep the pot small just check/call down imo, otherwise we're playing to get it in, no? or i guess we could check/raise and then check/call river?

ryan's overbet lines are interesting.