(HU 5-10 cashgame hand) Turning strongish hand into bluff on the river hu...spew?

[Annette Obrestad]

Ok some background:

Been playing this guy for about 3 hrs 2 tabling so have a good feel for his game. He 3b's quite a bit. Wasnt using a hud but id guess 15% of hands or so. He usually shut down after cbetting flop in 3b pots unless the turn was a really good 2 barreling card. Seems to be a decent hand reader. His ranges had been pretty polarized up until now, and id caught him just flatting in the bb with KQ, AJ type hands a lot.

I had been overbet bluffing the river a ton, and he still hadnt called any of my river bluffs. Only time he called my overbet was when i had the nuts. Had also not seem him hero call rivers at all except for one time early when he rr'd with AQ and I called with 7s. Flop TxTc2c, he bet, i call. He chk called 3/4 pot bets on blank turn and river.

Ok hand: (Sry for not converting)

Full Tilt Poker Game #13326105428: Table Scoop (heads up) - $5/$10 - No Limit Hold'em - 9:11:32 ET - 2009/07/11
Seat 1: EIephant ($4,642.25)
Seat 2: Annette_15 ($2,797.25)
Annette_15 posts the small blind of $5
EIephant posts the big blind of $10
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Annette_15 [Kd Qd]
Annette_15 raises to $30
EIephant raises to $115
Annette_15 calls $85
*** FLOP *** [Jd 6s 3s]
EIephant bets $165
Annette_15 calls $165
*** TURN *** [Jd 6s 3s] [Qh]
EIephant bets $280
Annette_15 calls $280
*** RIVER *** [Jd 6s 3s Qh] [4s]
EIephant bets $700
Annette_15 has 15 seconds left to act
????????


I hadnt seen him valuebet super light in these spots before, so I thought his vb'ing range would be something like QK+. So I guess my question is... does my line look strong enough that he'll fold out random 2 pair hands and overpairs, or should I just be calling river to bluffcatch since my hands is pretty strong? Would appreciate ur thoughts.

Thanks

[Bryan Devonshire]

what do you think his turn and river betsizing means?

does he think that you would play a spade draw aggressively?

[Annette Obrestad]

His betsizing is pretty std for what he had been doing the whole match, so that doesnt rly tell me much.

I had also not raised many flops in reraised pots, but Id been floating some, so Im not sure if hed think Id raise it. I would probably not raise the flop with a flushdraw this deep cause Id be afraid of him committing himself and then me having to fold which would suck. At 100x stacks, Id be much more likely to get it in. So knowing my own range, I know for sure Id play flushdraws this way... But does he? I dont know. Even so, Its hard for me to get to the river without something with showdown value, so he has to think Im turning some sort of hand a into a bluff to be able to call.

[Bryan Devonshire]

Part of me wants to turn our hand into a bluff and shove; the problem in my mind though is that shouldn't hands we would need to bluff be betting more on the turn? He bets half pot OOP on a pretty wet and drawy board, so, isn't he usually either blocking with a draw, pot-controlling/value with one pair hands, or the occasional double barrel? I just don't see many two pair + hands based on his turn bet size. I think the only hands that reasonably show up in his range that we can bluff OTR is AA, KK, AQ, but I don't think he would bet those hands on the river.

I guess call? Sick spot.

[Ryan Daut]

pretty trivial call i think.

he could be vbetting worse like AJ KJ Q9 QT or have the same hand as well as bluffs and semibluffs like AK T9 KT 45 that he will barrel pretty frequently cause the board runs out pretty scary for underpairs like 77-TT so calling is probably better than folding.

and since he only bet half pot on turn, he doesnt show up with a set/2p/overpairs (aka hands that beat you that may fold to shoves) often enough and more often shows up with thinner vbets, flushes that got there and bluffs which makes calling better than shoving.