REPOST: Shoving mathematics

[plessis204]

Originally Posted by scott diamond

I tend to over bet AA anytime I have it. I tried one time slow playing them with NO luck.

which is an exploitable play to anyone who's paying attention, which is actually what sparked this whole discussion iirc.

[Barry Greenstein]

Originally Posted by plessis204

But it wouldn't be the same calculations as djk's, amirite?




Wouldn't we only make this shove against an opponent who we think/know will play incorrectly? I wouldn't make this play against you since I look like a 17 year old and you would correctly assume that I'm an internet player, and would therefore adjust your calling range correctly. On the other end of the spectrum, I'm making this play against a bad player who's leaks I can exploit profitably, right?

I give the reasons in the opening post and throughout the thread. Shoving is +EV chipwise, but that doesn't mean there isn't a better play (more +EV), and there are other considerations.

Barry

[plessis204]

Originally Posted by plessis204

I think the point that a lot of people are missing is that there's a difference between profitable (+ev) and optimal. I assume the optimal play would change with the variety of starting hands, but I could be wrong about that.

Originally Posted by Barry Greenstein

I give the reasons in the opening post and throughout the thread. Shoving is +EV chipwise, but that doesn't mean there isn't a better play (more +EV), and there are other considerations.

Barry

so we agree

[kakon2]

while i agree with allot of what barry says, i think he is missing the place from which those calculations coming from.
im guessing its coming from mostly online high stakes tourneys, where players that become 15-25bb deep (which because of the structure happens all the time) are looking for any resteal opportunity that they can get.
so when they in the bb and they have 20bb and a 20bb player like barry or any other pro open to 3bb standard raise from the sb, with all the money in the pot and the fact that barry can have any two, it becomes the ultimate resteal spot.
so many online players will shove with almost any two, against those players which are probably the majority online, raising and folding to a shove might be the worse option, so you want to know when it is better to just shove then to fold, and sometimes you will just limp with k8 and sometimes make a standard raise but it still helpful to know those things.

[thret]

Barry, have you considered establishing what would happen if your table is excessively tight/excessively loose to determine the boundary conditions? It might be useful to know the extremes of card removal as both circumstances arise during a tournament.

[PoKeez8ullet]

Interesting~ I never think that the card removal effect has so much impact on BB's hand range in 9 handed game, when everyone folded to BB.

Barry was just advocating players should think more and focus on that very moment, to take into account more factors in making your decision, instead of knowing K8o is +EV to shove with 22bb. Barry doesn't means that we do not need to do those calc. and analysis but in most situation, it is not the first important priority or the only thing to consider.

I think there are some people who think un-exploitive shove table, is the ultimate correct move likes 2+2 must = 4 for example when you have xx with xxbb, against 1 opponent is an un-exploitive shove, so you must/have to push. Barry's statement is just stating that there are more that we need to be aware of.

[BJ Nemeth]

Originally Posted by Barry Greenstein

1. ... In a nine-handed game, the big blind is stronger, on average, than it would be in a head up situation, because hands actually get stronger as people fold, since hold’em is a game where high cards are correlated to better hand strength.

I had never learned this until Barry mentioned it to me and another reporter during a tournament in 2007.

Barry was describing a specific hand that had just gone down, and said that since everyone folded to his A-K in the small blind, he was a slight favorite over the big blind's pocket pair. (They had gotten it all in preflop.) The other reporter and I were clearly confused by this, so Barry gave a quick explanation of this concept.

I was stunned, because this effect is so obvious once you are aware of it.

The other reporter didn't grasp the concept right away, and went on a fool's errand as he tried arguing with Barry about it. Which was very entertaining for me to watch. :-)

FYI, is there a name for this effect, in which hold'em hands tend to get stronger as players fold? I suggest that we call it the Greenstein Effect, though he's probably not the first to point it out or offer a proof. (Or is he?)

[thret]

Greenstein Effect sounds good to me

Make a wikipedia page so it is official...

[plessis204]

Originally Posted by Barry Greenstein

I don't think better accuracy is important. I just wanted to mention that bunching is real. Since your opponents will sometimes fold incorrectly to your shoves, that probably offsets it.

I am curious what number you got for a profitable shove with K8 in the small blind.

Barry

Originally Posted by thret

Greenstein Effect sounds good to me

Make a wikipedia page so it is official...

it's the bunching effect if I'm reading everything correctly.

[BJ Nemeth]

Originally Posted by plessis204

it's the bunching effect if I'm reading everything correctly.

Yep. Bunching effect it is. Oh well.