REPOST: Wynn Classic 1k Fold Top 2

[Russ Floyd]

Talking to Barry last night at Heads up draw he asked me to post a hand & well it's The Bear so I listen.
I caught a lot of grief the other day from a top online pro for folding top 2 on flop but I was sure I was 100% beat. After reading through Justin's math from another thread I still feel correct but I'll let you guys decide after I give you a little history. Our 9 handed table was short 4 players for the first 30 minutes. Tricky and aggressive players feed on short handed situations and take every edge possible. The villain in this hand not only gave me 2 walks during this time but only raised 3 hands, two of which went to showdown where he had flopped a set and top top in the other hand. He just seemed super solid and his play and demeanor backed it up.
Blinds 50-100 I haven't done much and have 10k starting stack still while villain had won those hands and had 15k. I am in SB with 97sp and we are now 8 handed. UTG+1 is tight passive player and opens to 300. 3 callers to me and I call.

Flop 9h7h3c At this point I am watching the pre raiser who throws in 400 cbet which villain calls. I make it 1800 hoping the opener has the overpair and ships it on me. Opener mucks and villain tanks which he had not done yet. He then makes it 4800 so this is obviously it as to shippin it or mucking it with my stack. I am a very quick player and I rarely take more than a minute to make my decisions. Everything told me that he was super super strong from his action on hand to his demeanor and the way he made the call on flop and then the reraise. So there are only a few logical hands in villain's range. He could have a set of 3's(most likely) or a set of 7's or 9's or 97s also but I think he mucks 97pre std or not. He could have A3h but I think he would raise the opener and not flat and then he could have JTh 68h or T8h but I think he raises these on flop also.
This guy seemed so tight that I think he has 33 about 75% of the time 77 or 99 10% time and then the other combos or overpair the other 15%.
I am not a math guy as I said & see this as an easy fold(well not easy but as easy as folding top 2 gets)
Thoughts?

[100% HUSTLE]

going with your read probably saved you here.

leaving the math mumbo jumbo out here,
the line stinks of an over pair or set (maybe two pair also) based on his betting (after the flop),
so it's very tricky to pick which one he has.
and as you said...

Originally Posted by Russ Floyd

Everything told me that he was super super strong from his action on hand to his demeanor and the way he made the call on flop and then the reraise. So there are only a few logical hands in villain's range. He could have a set of 3's(most likely) or a set of 7's or 9's or 97s also but I think he mucks 97pre std or not.

basically, you either made a "mistake" or not.

but there can be only two "mistakes" here:

(1) you shove, he calls and shows a set, you bust
(2) you fold, he had an over pair or a weaker two pair, and you would have won

(all they other "plays" in between you could possibly make, don't add up to much.)

in situations like this i think it's best to think of sklansky's "fundamental theorum of poker"

"if you could see you opponents hole cards, you would make the 'ideal' play, the play that serves you best. a 'mistake' is the opposite of the 'ideal' play."

i say it's probably a good fold.

you live to fight another day......

[Biff Goods]

You know when I first started playing I played by pure gut cause I didn't know any better. And out side of fundamentally wrong mistakes I generally did well.

Then I started learning math, odds, %'s and fundamentals and put them in use and started fixing those leaks in my game. Problem is I strayed away from my gut(reads) a lot cause it wasn't the "correct play." I started making little bits of money over a long run but kept loosing big amounts here and there because I would talk myself into a pot by reasoning that I would have the best hand a favorable amount of the time and would win in the long run.

I have learned recently that I.... have to mix the two to be really successful in poker.

I'm mediocre at math, mediocre in fundamentals, and mediocre in game theory. With practice I might (hopefully) get better at these things. But my real skill is reading people and situations. This is evident in my dealings in life before I even found poker.

I'm not as crazy as helmuth with his 70/30 quote. But I do give quite a bit of my strategy up to my recall, reading and gut feelings. They tend to be right a considerable amount of the time. In respect, I also only discipline myself when I make a read or decision in a hand and am just way off or if I make a read and go against it. All other hands I take with stride.

Digressing back to the hand. It's really a toss up whether you lost a great opportunity or pinched off a terrible one. If you felt that strongly about it yet got no info to justify...just assume you were right and move on.