Meant to post this in this thread.
Okay, I want to write a little bit more in depth about this hand, simply because it's such a fascinating and deeply analytical situation.
Let's start piece by piece, beginning with the first decision that requires comment:
-Peter Eastgate calls $2,500 with 4
2
.
If I were to develop a college course curriculum on No Limit Texas Hold 'Em Cash Games, this hand would lead the textbook. How many times has a situation like this come up in a cash game and someone in Eastgate's position has said "How can I fold? Pot odds!" Well, we're going to see in this hand why we don't make this call in a deep stack cash game, even with the price we're being laid.
After a flop of 2
-10
-2
...
-Barry Greenstein bets $10,000 with A
A
.
Barry is in a pretty awful spot. He's in a situation where, if he bets, the entire table will know that he almost never has a weak hand, but he rarely has a monster, either. However, he also doesn't have a hand strong enough to check in an eight-way pot. So I'd say Greenstein has to bet here, and whatever action he faces later in the hand, he should keep in mind that everyone is going to have his range narrowed down to pretty much what he has.
-Tom Dwan raises to $37,300 with Q
10
.
This is where the hand rapidly spins out of control. It's also the only part of the hand where I admittedly have no idea what the thought process is behind the move.
I would love to know what Dwan thought he was accomplishing with this raise.
A) I can't imagine that his raise is for value, because the only hands he can be ahead of here are 10-9s or J-10s, and those hands might not even call a raise.
B) It's also hard to believe that Dwan would think turning his hand into a bluff would work here. He has the entire known world behind him still to act, all of whom are capable of holding a two in their hand. Even if everyone folds to Greenstein....there's a huge chance that Greenstein has a hand like AA that he's simply never folding to Tom Dwan.
C) That leaves raising in order to define everyone's hand....but I don't know why he would feel the need to raise in order to do this when a call would work just as well and cost less money. In fact, if Dwan really wanted to make a crazy bluff, he could've flatted Greenstein, and then if Eastgate raises behind him, Dwan could decide that Eastgate can't have tens full and elect to rep that hand himself with a big raise. Given how cautious Eastgate had been playing and how deep they both were, this play might well have worked.
Personally, I think Dwan needs to fold here. His hand is likely beaten here by at least Greenstein, and he has no reason to think a bluff will work.
-Eastgate calls $37,300.
This is why Eastgate's hand is a fold preflop. It doesn't really matter if you're getting 10 to 1 preflop if you're not going to feel comfortable even when you flop trips.
Now that he's put himself in this spot, however....I think Eastgate cannot raise. Raising here is really overplaying your hand, as Dwan or Greenstein should be folding anything worse than trips. At this point, Eastgate needs to decide right now if he's calling Dwan down or if his hand is beat. If he cold-calls the flop, he's basically announcing to the table (and particularly to a player like Dwan) that he has a weak deuce. This is a Very Bad Thing if we have any intention on folding on later streets, as we will soon see.
-Greenstein calls $27,300.
I was very interested to hear Greenstein's thoughts on this hand, and I would like to go over them.
I know Greenstein said the possibility of hitting an ace wasn't a huge influence on his call, but I don't really understand why it entered his thought process at all. Seven people called his raise, so it's highly likely that one or both of his aces are dead.
Greenstein also said that Eastgate might've been thinking along the same lines as him, that Dwan might be raising with just a ten. The problem with that is, even if that's true, Eastgate doesn't rate to have a hand that beats a ten but doesn't also beat aces. I can't imagine Eastgate calling with A-10, because I can't see how he thinks that hand beats both Dwan and Greenstein.
Once Eastgate calls, I think Greenstein's hand is a pretty clear fold.
-After a 7
turn, Eastgate and Greenstein check. Dwan bets $104,200 into a $133,500 pot.
I think at this point, anyone who calls Dwan spewy, a lagtard, or a station either isn't paying attention or is tearing down as a default anyone who is young and successful "too easily". This bet is three times as good as the flop raise was bad.
Let's break down what Dwan thinks each player likely has. He probably puts Greenstein on an overpair to the board, likely aces. As for Eastgate, there's a good chance he could have any deuce, but he's very likely to have a deuce with a bad kicker. Therefore, Dwan's hand is no good, and the only way he can win is to get everyone else to fold. Can he? Well, what will the other two players think of a big bet right here?
Eastgate has been really careful so far, so if Eastgate has any kicker problems whatsoever, he's going to be worried that his hand is beat, and he probably isn't going to risk his whole stack to find that out.
Greenstein may not have been willing to give Dwan credit before, but now that Dwan is betting big into two people, one of whom is likely to have trips....there are just so many reasons to put Dwan on a big hand, that Greenstein certainly has to fold.
Dwan's bet here essentially creates a domino effect, pushing Eastgate so hard that he falls over right onto Greenstein, toppling him as well.
-Eastgate folds.
I understand Eastgate's fold, as his hand beats a bluff and only a bluff....but then, that was kind of true on the flop as well. It's important that when you broadcast your hand strength the way Eastgate did, that you not let someone like Dwan run you over in those spots. If you do, he will make your like miserable.
Again, I think Eastgate should be either folding the flop or calling down. You don't want to let Dwan know he can barrel you off of monsters.
-Greenstein folds.
This really isn't a fold I'd ever criticise. The only way Greenstein can key into the hand deep enough to find a call is to figure out what hand Dwan put Eastgate on, and calculate how often he might try to barrel Eastgate off a weak deuce. If he thinks Dwan's doing it more than half the time, then it's a call given the price Greenstein is being laid.
However, Dwan just shouldn't be bluffing here all that often, so I can't really call it a bad fold.
So to go over the hand, I think there were three spots, and three spots only, that I can call out-and-out mistakes. Those would be Eastgate's preflop call, Dwan's flop raise, and Greenstein's call. There are some decisions I wouldn't have made in this hand, but they weren't wrong enough to be out-and-out "bad".
And of course, Dwan's turn bet is absolutely 100% brilliant. Say what you want about the kid, but the guy has heart. Gotta respect that.
REPOST: Aces against Dwan and Eastgate on HSP Season 5
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