Barry – Vanessa and I might think similarly (about heads up, definitely), but thinking and doing are two different things! If she played this hand she would bet 46o on the turn and pot bet a king on the river and claim it was for value :-).
I’m not at all saying I won’t get paid when I bet. I’m just saying that this board is just such a poor board to pure bluff against Phil once he calls the flop that my range is going to be narrowed to semi-bluffs and top pair or better if I bet, but if I check, my hand is quite a bit more difficult to define (which is why I’m thinking of checkraising).
Phil will almost definitely call me down with a ten if I lead. With stacks as deep as they are, though, I’m a little concerned with what he will do with a hand like 89 and the like on the turn, and protecting myself against semibluff raises as I think stacks are really good for Phil to raise/fold and check back blank rivers/value bet rivers that improve him, rather than simply calling with his pair+gutshot hands.
I guess by that logic I can just bet with impunity and call a raise, checking and folding nearly every river if he bets (and winning when he checks back). And betting nearly every blank river if he calls.
But I still think there’s some merit to checking and letting him value cut himself with Tx, or trying to stack Tx by checkraising. Checking KK here also protects me from getting floated when I c-bet the flop with nothing and have no bluff opportunity on the turn, or when I want to buy myself free cards in the future when I check.
Re: the problem of giving Phil free cards when I check, I think that vs him, I’m so often folding in my spot that there is a good chance he will just bet 100% of his hands on the turn to protect himself against giving free cards to me. And if I do c/c, he now has the initiative to evaluate his action on the river.
Ike – agree with most everything you say, but Phil is smart enough to balance his weak range by punishing me for trying to value bet him thinly (I think, at least).
I don’t know. There’s something to be said for just betting the top of my range in this spot and not worrying about anything else, but against the best players, and someone who thinks about psychology as much as Phil, I think there’s merit in thinking about alternative lines for various reasons.
By the way, for you guys who are just bet/bet/betting – is there any hand you checkraise on the turn? What/which/why?