Bellagio $1500: 88 vs. Barry G

[Clonie Gowen]

Originally Posted by Justin Bonomo

Perhaps you misread the stacks Clonie. We have 40k, but Barry only has 30k.

If we raise to 10k, and Barry shoves, we have a profitable call and can't fold. We are getting over 2-1 and Barry has enough overcards in his shove range.

Also, it's a disaster if he ever calls with something like QJs and folds on a missed flop when we could have had him all-in pre on that same flop.

I don't think it is a disaster if he calls with QJ and folds on a missed flop. 88 isn't that strong. A Q or J can come on the turn and river. It is almost a 50/50 if QJ sees 5 cards. 88 vs QJ is not just like AK vs QQ or below, the power of AK is it ability to make small to medium pairs lay down pre-flop. All other button hands are just hoping that they aren't called, hoping they have two over cards. AK is only a big dog to AA and KK. QJ is a big dog to AQ,AJ,KQ,AA,KK,QQ,JJ and is 48/52 on all pairs and AK vs QJ is a 60/40. All are the most likely re-raising hands. The decision to push pre-flop to a re-raiser with QJ is dangerous. It puts your opponent in a difficult spot. This is why a raise of 10,000 is just as good as a shove.

If my standard re-raise amount commits more that 40 to 50% of my stack I shove. But if I can make a re-raise that is just as effective as a shove, I prefer to do that. My opponent is going to push back at the wrong time. I give my opponent the option of making a HUGE mistake, with the most likely re-raise hands I have in that spot. Sometimes I am going to fold, sometimes I am going to call, with this my opponent can't say for sure that QJ won't be called so them pushing in with it is not a good play against me.

[Clonie Gowen]

Originally Posted by Isaac Baron

I can't even believe this is a thread, this is the easiest all in in the world even if Barry knows who you are, the fact that he views you as random makes this an even better spot. The most interesting thing in this thread imo is which option is worse, raising to 10k and folding to a shove or a stop-and-maybe-go.

Poker isn't that easy. If it were so black and white everyone could do it.

[Todd Terry]

Originally Posted by Amit Makhija

I think everyone advocating a flat is greatly overestimating their postflop edge with a hand that flops semi-poorly, out of position vs a super strong opponent. In this instance unless the preflop raiser is the worlds worst postflop player (he's not) a shove will almost always yield a greater return.

Estimating the equity of a preflop all-in is rather easy to do mathematically, because you only need to estimate Barry's opening and shove calling ranges. Estimating the equity of calling in a spot like this mathematically would require a very sophisticated postflop model. What's your (or anyone else's) best guess as to the EV of calling pre here? Is it negative due to the difficulty of playing the hand postflop?

[Justin Bonomo]

I don't think it is a disaster if he calls with QJ and folds on a missed flop. 88 isn't that strong. A Q or J can come on the turn and river. It is almost a 50/50 if QJ sees 5 cards.

Yeah, it's 47/53 when it sees 5 cards. The point, however is that QJ gets to get all-in every time it hits, and save money every time it folds. We're a 3-1 favorite on the 963 flop, but we never get any money in when that's the case.

[Jonathan Little]

I dont see how there could be any other play besides a push against basically all nonsupernit players.

[Bryan Devonshire]

Originally Posted by Jonathan Little

I dont see how there could be any other play besides a push against basically all nonsupernit players.

but then they might even fold TT, AQ if they're supernits so it's still a push.

Clonie, we all know that feel and reads influence the correct decision, but the fundamental basis of the game is a series of prop bets that all have true mathematical values. We can't just ignore these, either, just like we cannot ignore the reads and the "Barry knows that we know".

In pre-flop situations it is very unusual where you will find a spot where a read can narrow a range enough to significantly sway a mathematical call. In this spot with 88 and getting something like 2.4-1 (if we re-raise to 10k and Bear shoves), even if we give him a ridiculously tight range because "he knows that we're calling", we still have to call:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

349,310,016 games 0.005 secs 69,862,003,200 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.842% 35.66% 00.19% 124547412 651786.00 { 88 }
Hand 1: 64.158% 63.97% 00.19% 223459032 651786.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }


---

There's just way too many combinations of AK than there are of the big pairs that we end up needing only 1.9-1 to call here, even if he's on a range that tight.

[Steve Brecher]

Originally Posted by Todd Terry

... What's your (or anyone else's) best guess as to the EV of calling pre here? Is it negative due to the difficulty of playing the hand postflop?

Sorry, no help; just want to mention that EV(call) doesn't need to be negative, just less than EV(jam) in order to support the latter choice.

[Alex Kamberis]

clonie im sorry but your thought process on this entire hand is brutally flawed - it really has nothing to do with 'agreeing' or 'the beauty of poker'

the concept of ignoring math in order to preserve tournament life and/or a solid stack size is fine in some spots, but not this one. reraising to 10,000 and folding for 20,000 more with a hand that doesnt play miserably versus barry's 4-bet/shove range (which includes AQ/AK, maybe even AJ given the stack sizes) would be nothing less than a disaster/horrible.

would you make the same play (RR to 10k/fold to shove) with 72o? if so, OK i guess (not really OK but im being nice), but I'm 100% sure you wouldn't. however, there's no difference in making this play with 88 and making it with 72o, since Barry is absolutely never flatting the 3 bet with these stacks - he's either shoving or folding. if you are re-raise/folding, then your 88 is literally the exact same as 72o. this is almost common sense in poker nowadays, to be totally honest.

i like menlo's and jlittle's responses, and to be honest i'm not sure why i gave that much thought/info to this in the first place. it's a really, really easy shove pre.

[Barry Greenstein]

Originally Posted by Alex Kamberis

would you make the same play with 72o? if so, OK i guess (not really OK but im being nice), but I'm 100% sure you wouldn't. however, there's no difference in making this play with 88 and making it with 72o, since Barry is absolutely never flatting the 3 bet with these stacks - he's either shoving or folding. if you are re-raise/folding, then your 88 is literally the exact same as 72o. this is almost common sense in poker nowadays, to be totally honest.

i like menlo's and jlittle's responses, and to be honest i'm not sure why i gave that much thought/info to this in the first place. it's a really, really easy shove pre.

Alex,

Although I pretty much agree with you, I have folded in similar live situations where I would have never folded online because of a live read at this point in the hand. Sometimes live, you can go from just a range to something more specific. And although it doesn't apply here, there are many times I make a play with a defensive card where I will fold to a reraise, but I wouldn't make the play with 7-2 offsuit.

Barry

[Alex Kamberis]

Barry,

Although like you said it doesn't apply here because of the short stacks, and the fact that both players in the hand are professionals, I am trying to pick something up here. Do you mean you would make a re-raise with a playable hand just in order to pick up info/some live tells, even though you have every intention of treating it similarly to 72o for the rest of the hand?

For example, say you're 40 bbs deep effective here each. Are you saying that in Todd's shoes you wouldn't mind a 3-bet with 88 (even with intent of folding to a shove) because you can then pick up tells off of the button opener based on how he reacts to your play?

I still say if he's never flatting your RR here, then you might as well make the same play with 72o, right? I'm not sure I understood your reply.

edit: i think i just got it, actually... i assume that you mean that you would make the RR with 88, and then decide whether or not to call a shove based on how the player on the button seems to be acting? this would obviously give it more value than 72o since obviously you couldn't call a shove with the 72o regardless.

also, again, this is creating a completely new hypothetical situation almost unrelated to the OP, but regardless i am interested.